Eurovision 2025: Semi-Final 2 Prediction

 

Eurovision 2025 continues tonight with the second semi-final so it's time for me to make some more predictions. Before I do, however, I'd like to take a moment to digest everything that went down on Tuesday. Fifteen countries were whittled down to ten, with Albania, Estonia, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Sweden and Ukraine making it through to the final. This did, however, mean that we lost Azerbaijan, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus and Slovenia.

I'd like to congratulate Iceland and Portugal especially on defying the odds and making it through. Both Væb and Napa delivered excellent performances on the night and in my opinion do deserve their spots. I'm not sure if "Róa" will get off the ground in the final, but am definitely excited to see how "Deslocado" gets on now that the juries are coming into play. A shout-out must also go to San Marino, who broke the DJ curse to make only their fourth final to date. It could have gone either way, but I'm glad they're in.

Commiserations to all of our non-qualifiers, particularly Belgium, which felt like a very strong, polished performance and I thought it would qualify relatively comfortably. "Strobe Lights" is a song that I think would have done better with juries, and I think it probably only just missed out in the end, but very disappointing for Red Sebastian - and on his birthday too! Cyprus was another surprise: performing last with an eye-catching stage show looked on paper like it would be enough, however, it wasn't Theo's best night vocally and I don't know how well the actual song stood up without everything around it.

I think Slovenia could have made it on another day, and again I wouldn't be surprised if they were close to qualifying in a tight field. Croatia definitely elevated their package on stage, but at the end of the day the song just wasn't strong enough. It's a real shame though, given how well they did last year - and I hope Marko isn't discouraged from coming back to Eurovision. Azerbaijan felt like a predictable non-qualifier, but disappointing all the same to see them eliminated for the third consecutive year. Hopefully they will stay with Eurovision, and can get back on track in 2026.

I did write a rather long thread on Bluesky with my live reactions to the semi-final so if you want some more thoughts on the show, they're here.

Anyway, we now move on to the second semi-final, with sixteen more countries set to take the stage, as well as exhibition performances from France, Germany and the United Kingdom. This prediction is going to follow exactly the same format as my last one - I'll go through each country in performance order and share my thoughts, before giving an overall prediction at the end. Whilst I did get 8/10 on Tuesday, some of my predictions were wildly inaccurate so take the below with a pinch of salt.

Australia

Opening this semi-final is Australia's Go-Jo, with "Milkshake Man". From what we've seen so far, the staging is leaning very much into the fun, silly side of the song, with bright colours and a gigantic blender behind Go-Jo on stage. This makes a lot of sense, as it maximises the potential for plausible deniability about the song's meaning, and overall makes it accessible to a wider audience - particularly many of the younger viewers who will be watching. Go-Jo seems to be delivering on the vocal front, although this isn't a particularly difficult song to sing. Personally, I still don't like this song, and I don't think I'll be alone in that opinion among the audience tonight. This will be divisive, and the question is whether or not its lovers will outnumber its haters. I could absolutely see this qualifying, but equally wouldn't be hugely shocked if it did end up as a surprise non-qualifier. I'm not sure if voters particularly from Eastern Europe will be able to latch on to this quite as much as (for instance) the UK or Ireland, and Australia do tend to struggle with the televote. I do, however, have to acknowledge Iceland's surprise qualification: another fun song opening its semi-final, with a similarly bombastic performance. Overall, I'm leaning towards a 'yes' for Australia, but with an asterisk next to it.

Montenegro

Following Australia is Montenegro, with "Dobrodošli". Of course, we in the Eurovision fan community are very familiar with the idea of song number two being the 'death slot', however, Poland did manage to escape that on Tuesday so it clearly isn't the fate-sealing factor it has been perceived as. However, Poland qualified from slot two with a far more energetic performance than what Nina is bringing. Whilst it's much better than what we saw at Montesong, it all still feels a bit too dreary and doesn't give us anything we haven't seen before. As I said in my review of this song, "Dobrodošli" is very 'Balkan ballad by the numbers', with a long white dress, dramatic visuals and lots of dry ice on stage. This makes for a package that is highly competent, but possibly lacks a particular moment for a first-time listener to remember. Unfortunately, I don't think Montenegro has much of a chance to make it through this evening. They're performing very early on in the show, and with so many engaging performances to come afterwards, I do think that Nina might be forgotten about. She'll be competing with Serbia's Princ for the votes of their shared target demographic - i.e. Balkan ballad lovers. In my opinion, Serbia is delivering the stronger package, and has a much more favourable position in the running order, so will most likely win that audience; and I think the rest of the viewers might find this moderately pleasant, but at the end of the day, I don't think it will be striking enough to bring in the votes.

Ireland

Now we move to Ireland, with Emmy's "Laika Party". I discussed the song's meaning at length in my review, and I must say that I'm still not entirely on board with the message, but it has to be said that this is a fun performance. The visuals are eye-catching, and, similarly to Australia, there are lots of bright colours to appeal to the younger vote. From what we've seen so far, my main concern is that the performance seems a bit static. I would have liked to have seen Emmy moving a little bit more around the stage, building up energy in the arena that I think would have come through the screen very well. Instead, I worry that it might feel a bit half-baked. Another issue for me is Emmy's vocals, which don't seem to have improved very much since the Eurosong performance. In the rehearsal clip that the EBU have released, there is heavy reliance, again, on the pre-recorded backing vocals which do the heavy lifting, but even then, Emmy is noticeably off-key. We saw on Tuesday that performances where the vocals didn't seem quite right - Belgium, Azerbaijan, Cyprus - didn't make it through, so maybe this is something Europe are looking for this year. I do think this will struggle to make it to Saturday night - it's one of quite a few songs that could surprise either way but I personally don't know where the votes will come from for this beside Ireland's usual allies of the UK, Malta and Australia. I will put in the same caveat of Iceland making it through with a performance that was possibly slightly messier than I'd have liked, however, this semi-final is tougher, and I think there are other countries doing this style of music better.

Latvia

Fourth in this semi-final are Tautumeitas from Latvia, performing "Bur man laimi". What we are seeing on stage is very similar indeed to the captivating performance from Supernova which bought them so many fans. It retains the soul of that performance, with the same 'witchy' feel to it that makes it so enchanting: curious yet strangely intimidating. The vocal performance absolutely won't be an issue for these girls; they have been absolutely perfect every time we've heard them, with some incredible harmonies that add so much to the value of the package and should pique the interest of a first-time listener. This is the sort of song, however, much like "Ulveham" last year, that I fear might not connect with an international audience very well. By leaning in to the traditional elements as much as it does, it runs the risk of alienating parts of the electorate. If Latvia are to qualify, they will need to do very well with the other Northern and Eastern European countries who will be able to feel more of an affinity with this sound. I do think a Latvian qualification is entirely possible this year; I think it's probably the most borderline song we have at the moment. If everything goes to plan tonight, it could definitely go through in ninth or tenth, but something about it does scream eleventh place to me. I can't quite put my finger on what this is; but it's for that reason that I think Latvia are going to fail to qualify by the skin of their teeth.

Armenia

Next up is Armenia, with Parg's "Survivor". Of all the songs that were selected through national finals, this is probably one of those that has been elevated the most for Eurovision. Depi Evratesil felt like quite a low-budget affair this year, but this package is getting a lot more right. Parg's movements on stage are matching the energy of the song very well, with the thumping beat throughout the song really coming through. The visuals are also contributing well to the overall atmosphere which feeds into the song's angry feeling very effectively. This also seems like it's being performed well vocally - I mentioned in my review that I think Parg needs to stay on top of this song to avoid it running away from him and he seems to be generally in control. "Survivor" benefits heavily from being the only song of its kind in this semi-final. For that reason, it should be able to mobilise its target demographics in a way that other songs might struggle to (as I mentioned with Montenegro). Having said that, I don't know how big the crossover is between people who like this kind of music and people who are watching Eurovision on a Thursday night, but we will soon see. Again, I think Armenia could go either way tonight, but I'm probably leaning more towards a 'no'. That's not to say at all that it's dead on arrival; there is absolutely a world where this pulls off a surprise qualification, but I think it's unlikely on the balance of probabilities.

Austria

Now we go to another of this year's favourites: Austria's JJ performing "Wasted Love". This is another performance that's been staged by the genius of Sergio Jaén, and whilst a clever stage show wasn't enough to save Cyprus on Tuesday, I think this performance is really working for Austria. The black and white filter isn't something we've seen used often at Eurovision (well, since 1968 at least) and I think it works perfectly with JJ's vocals to make the song stand out even more. Love it or hate it, one thing nobody can deny is that the popera genre creates these packages that are nothing if not striking, and I don't think there's much danger of this being forgotten by the end of the show. The props are also being used to great effect here, and bringing in more of the themes and motifs that are present in the studio cut; even the paper boat at the start of the song is very powerful. JJ's vocals are incredible, and the techno blend towards the end of the song should bring in another section of the audience if it's executed well and doesn't feel out of place. Whilst this is definitely a song designed to appeal more to the juries than the televote, it should have no issues qualifying tonight. It probably won't win the semi-final - but it doesn't need to; as long as it's no lower than tenth, it's in and the slate is wiped clean. I don't see a situation where this fails to make it through, and all I can say is that I look forward to seeing how well this can do on Saturday.

Greece

The next competitor to take the stage tonight will be Klavdia from Greece. She's giving us a package that has been changed fairly significantly from what we saw at the national selection, which I think is for the best. What we have now is another performance that is far more engaging but hasn't lost its soul. The traditional Greek elements in this still have their moment to shine, obviously helped by the use of the native language, but the whole thing feels like more of a package, rather than Klavdia from Greece who has come to sing a song and that's it. The imagery on the LED behind Klavdia really helps to develop the mood of this performance, and the whole thing certainly had me captivated, so hopefully the rest of Europe feels the same. Her vocals are also very strong, so I have no worries on that front for Greece. If I was to have a guess now (which of course I am doing) I would say this is qualifying, but it's tight. I see this getting a similar result to Estonia's Alika a couple of years ago. She qualified from her semi-final in tenth place, having garnered reasonable support from most countries but with few top scores. When the juries came into play in the final, Alika was pushed up the scoreboard hugely and finished in the top ten. I'm not sure if Greece will do quite that well this year, but I think it will qualify if the whole performance doesn't end up feeling like too much - or indeed not enough.

Lithuania

We proceed to Lithuania, who are delivering Katarsis, with "Tavo akys". This is another one that I reviewed quite recently, and given that staging-wise, this isn't too different from what we saw at the national selection, I don't think I have an awful lot more to add. This is a song that will find its audience on the night - like with Armenia, it doesn't have any direct competition in its genre and that will benefit Lithuania hugely. In a section of the running order that's quite female-dominated, this also provides a bit of contrast and will probably stand out for that reason. My only issue with this package remains its accessibility to people outside its (rather niche) target audience. I don't consider myself as being part of that demographic (however, I do quite like this specific song) and confess that I was bored before the end of the thirty-second rehearsal clip. If Katarsis are able to draw people in from the start, they could be on to something, but otherwise I think they've lost a sizeable portion of the viewers. On balance, I do expect Lithuania to qualify. Its fans will vote heavily for this, and Lithuania also have the ideal draw in terms of voting partners - with Latvia, Ireland and the UK all voting in this semi-final. I'm not sure how it will do on Saturday, particularly with the juries, but I'm relatively confident that it will get there.

Malta

Following Lithuania is Miriana Conte from Malta, with the newly-titled "Serving". Again, I discussed this entry, and why I believe Malta have categorically won Eurovision PR, at length in my review fairly recently. Whilst I don't think that's changed, I must acknowledge that hype seems to have died down somewhat for this entry in recent days. Maybe the novelty has worn off, maybe people have been underwhelmed by the stage performance, maybe it's something else entirely. For her Eurovision performance, Miriana has taken some of the core elements from her show at the Malta Eurovision Song Contest, such as the exercise balls she is demonstrating in the above picture, and combined them with the surreality of her music video, to create a package that is certainly engaging, but does at times feel a bit busy and chaotic. Executed well, this will be impressive - but without having seen the full performance yet, I think at this stage Malta are running the risk of seeming messy. Maybe that's what they're going for, but they need to be careful as they don't have the most solid of histories when it comes to the televote. In quite a similar vein to Australia, they start at a disadvantage from being Malta, and are also bringing a song that (arguably deliberately) will alienate some of the audience. I do think Malta will qualify tonight - if nothing else they will be riding their PR wave - with help coming mainly from the Western side of the continent, but I'm still unconvinced about it's chances in the final. I'm not sure how well it will translate on second viewing for a casual audience, and do think it may struggle to reach the left-hand side of the board.

Georgia

Next is Georgia's Mariam Shengelia, performing "Freedom". This is, in my opinion, the worst song in Eurovision 2025, and to get it out there quickly, stands virtually no chance of qualifying. The general disparate feel of the studio version has unfortunately been brought to the stage in Basel, and the whole thing doesn't make a lot of sense. It's a shame I can only use one image, because that really isn't representative of much of the performance. As with the studio version, the best part of this package is Mariam herself. Her vocals are excellent, and she performs the song with a conviction that is admirable, and a confidence that makes you question whether or not she's heard what she's singing. However, this whole performance lacks a bit of purpose. I don't think I can sum it up better than I did in my initial review, when I said that Mariam drives the song forward very well, but I don't know where she's driving it to. I still don't know. Mariam walks with such power around the stage, but doesn't move her package forward either literally or metaphorically. To me, this song had been written off long before it arrived in Basel, so I can't say I'm particularly surprised by this, but I am expecting Georgia to finish last in this semi-final, and will quite honestly eat a kilogram of raw fish if it qualifies.

Denmark

Denmark's Sissal is next to the stage, with "Hallucination". After what was perceived by many to be a lacklustre performance at Dansk Melodi Grand Prix, Sissal promised to 'change everything' for the Eurovision stage. I can't quite say she's managed that, unfortunately. Granted, lots of things have changed - and for the better: Sissal is now joined by dancers, her outfit is smarter, and lighting has been used for maximum effect. However, to me this still has a couple of major issues. From what we've seen so far, it still all feels a bit sparse and static. I don't know how well this is going to energise the crowd in the arena when it doesn't feel like there's too much happening on stage. Sissal's vocals seem to be a bit more reliable, so we can only hope she's not having an off day this evening as that could prove detrimental to this package. Don't get me wrong, this performance is far more polished, professional and mature than what we saw in Denmark, but I'm not sure if it's going to be enough. Denmark are one of the countries tonight that really could go either way, and I think a lot will come down to how well Sissal can execute the live performance and what the crowd reaction in the arena is like. If everything comes together and it goes down a storm, this could easily make it into the televote's top ten. However, I still think it's at risk of being the unlucky song that just misses out with quite a few countries, and can't garner enough high marks from the countries that are giving it support in order to make it through.

Czechia

We now come to Czechia, with "Kiss Kiss Goodbye" being performed by Adonxs. As an internal selection, it wasn't entirely clear what we were going to get on stage from Czechia, and I spoke in my review of this song about the anonymous atmosphere it creates, and why that might harm it when it comes to forging connections with first-time listeners. However, I think this has been staged well by the Czech delegation. There's a nice contrast between the pure white background and some of this song's more daring lyrical content which I think provides a moment of intrigue for the listener - and I think the song should be instant enough to be remembered in the field. Again, the vocal performance we're getting is strong and the performance is very slick and effortlessly cool. One thing that we still don't know is what they're doing with the dance break. I have already discussed the benefits and drawbacks of this part of the song, and I think the extent of Czechia's success will depend on how well it blends with the rest of the package; there is a clear risk here that it ends up feeling disjointed and therefore doesn't appeal to voters. For what it's worth, I still think Czechia is a fairly safe qualifier. The song has enough quality to get it over the line, but I think this is one of our most unknown quantities in terms of how it's going to be received on Saturday: I could see this finishing left-hand side, possibly even top ten; but equally I wouldn't be surprised if it's languishing near the bottom. We'll have to wait and see, but I think Adonxs can relax for now.

Luxembourg

Starting the final run of songs is Luxembourg's Laura Thorn, with "La poupée monte le son". This is another one that I've explained the context of already, so I won't go into depth on that again, but I think this performance is much better than what we saw at the national final. It feels more polished and more grown-up but has retained its charm. The song has undergone a revamp since then as well, and I think this allows a bit more of Laura to shine through without necessarily feeling as pigeonholed by the 'kiddie' vibe of it all. Laura's vocals aren't among the strongest in the competition, but shouldn't throw up any major disasters either. I am leaning towards including Luxembourg as a qualifier, but I don't think this is certain by any means. If everything works together as a package in the way that it seems to from the preview clip, and if enough of the audience enjoy this sound, this should make it to Saturday. It won't do anything spectacular and won't be challenging the main contenders tonight, but I think this will be another song that is appreciated more by the juries, so hopefully Laura gets the chance to perform it for them. That being said, this song isn't in any way mainstream, and I don't think it has much of a guaranteed base of support, so I think it could quite easily end up being a shock non-qualifier.

Israel

Following Luxembourg is Yuval Raphael from Israel, with "New Day Will Rise". My position on Israel's participation in Eurovision remains unchanged: they are here, so I will speak about them accordingly. Yuval is performing the song alone, in a great big platform/staircase type of thing that I can't really think of a word for. The performance feels expensive and classy, a mood that I think is helped by the French lyrics in the song. It's something that is very professional, and feels like the adults are taking the stage for a few minutes whilst all the noisy children have a break (I do realise the irony of saying this about one of the youngest artists in this semi-final but there we go). Much like Laura from Luxembourg, her vocals are fairly reliable but we definitely have stronger. On paper, this is a fairly unremarkable performance, but we do have to take into account the huge televote magnet that anything with the label 'Israel' has become in the last eighteen months. Last year, "Hurricane" won its semi-final and came close to winning the televote in the final. I don't think Yuval will do quite that well, but she is a certain qualifier, and the televote will be pushing her up to the left-hand side of the final scoreboard. It's probably a deserving qualifier as well, I do quite like this song and would be disappointed if it was eliminated; I just remain wary of the huge numbers of votes we are likely to see come in.

Serbia

Time for me to once again be the sole defender of Serbia's Princ, who is performing "Mila" as the penultimate competitor in this semi-final. I've spoken about the song already, but I would like to say again that I think it's a fantastic song that really stands out in this field. It easily clears Montenegro in the Balkan ballad league, and on paper I see no reason why Serbia - a country that has never finished lower than eleventh in a semi-final - should fail to qualify with this. However, I do have to acknowledge that the reaction of literally everyone else has been decidedly more lukewarm, and it eventually gets to the point where I have to start thinking that maybe there's something in that. I think Serbia are staging this well, it's another performance that doesn't give us anything particularly new and exciting, but follows a tried and tested formula to deliver a package with the right quantities of music and drama throughout. Lots of Eurovision fans expected Slovenia's Klemen to 'pull a Dons' on Tuesday, but I have been living in a world where Princ qualifies ever since the song was selected. It's going to be somewhat embarrassing for me if this doesn't make it through now. To clarify, I don't think this will be among the top few songs in this line-up, but I think this genre of song still has enough fans, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, to get it over the line and into the final. I also think it will do better with the televote than the juries in the final, but let's see if it gets there first. Based on the general reception of this song, I can't be surprised if it does fail to make it through, but it would disappoint me greatly.

Finland

Finally, it's Erika Vikman from Finland, with "Ich Komme". One of the most show-stopping performances in Eurovision this year, it remains largely unchanged from what we saw at UMK, though with a slightly different outfit and everything made about 25% bigger. Erika's stage presence is absolutely stellar - she performs the life out of this song in the best possible way. For three minutes, every member of the audience in the St Jakobshalle are at an Erika Vikman concert, such is her command over the arena. It's not perfect vocally, but a song with these levels of bombast doesn't need to be. Erika's routine feels big and bold, yet carefully considered; very much a product of the Scandinavian machine. It's polished, slick, and classy in a way that keeps one toe firmly on the line throughout. This won't appeal to every part of the audience, but I think it's slightly more subtle than Australia and Malta's offerings, and should be more widely accessible. I can try to pick holes in this as much as I like, but the fact is that this is another definite qualifier, and a serious contender to win this semi-final. Conversation around Erika has died down a bit since she was selected (there's been a few disappointing moments when it's felt like Finland have forgotten about her in favour of Sweden's KAJ) but I still think she's definitely on track for a top ten finish in the final, and should get there with no problems whatsoever.

That's all of tonight's competitors in what I think will prove to be a very close battle. Bear in mind that all predictions are based on what I've seen so far, and that is far from the whole story as we know access to rehearsal footage has been a lot more restricted this year than in previous years. There are lots of songs that could easily move up and down the list below, and it's been incredibly difficult to predict. I genuinely think everything from Serbia down to Ireland could still go either way and wouldn't be surprised if my prediction ends up even more inaccurate than last time. Again, the list is more of an assessment of which songs are most likely to qualify, rather than a prediction of finishing position, but you are welcome to take it as either as they are more or less the same thing.

1. Finland

2. Israel

3. Austria

4. Malta

5. Czechia

6. Lithuania

7. Serbia

8. Australia

9. Luxembourg

10. Greece

11. Latvia

12. Denmark

13. Armenia

14. Ireland

15. Montenegro

16. Georgia

I have Latvia and Denmark out at the moment, but I could see either of these sneaking in ahead of Greece, Luxembourg or even Serbia on a bad day. A lot will depend on who sings well live, and how the audience in the arena itself latch on to each song - viewers at home notice when the crowd are getting behind an entry; call it the Baby Lasagna effect.

As before, I'm giving the last word to our automatic qualifiers for today. The UK have kept their cards quite close to their chest, which is exciting and terrifying in equal measure, but Remember Monday seem to be incredible as ever in terms of vocals, and also look like they're having the time of their lives which is nice. France's stage show is very well executed, although looks like it will create a big mess for somebody to clean up afterwards. Given a good running order slot in the final, this could challenge for the victory. Germany have had an upgrade from the national final, and feels a lot more polished, but I remain unconvinced by its chances on Saturday.

That's all for now - I am looking forward to seeing how much of what I have said above comes to pass and how much was maybe just wishful thinking. Switzerland are putting on a great Eurovision so far, and hopefully that will continue tonight. I'll be on Bluesky again sharing my thoughts as the show goes on, so do follow me using the link in the sidebar to stay up to date with all of that. My predictions for the Grand Final should be out on Saturday morning, but until then I once more say enjoy the show!