Eurovision 2025: Grand Final Prediction

 

It's the big one! After another shocking set of results in the second semi-final, we now have our final line-up. Before I discuss who I think is in with a chance of winning tonight, let's take a moment to talk about Thursday's qualifiers. Armenia, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Malta all successfully made it through to the final, leaving Australia, Czechia, Georgia, Ireland, Montenegro and Serbia behind. That does of course mean that I only managed to predict a slightly woeful 7/10 qualifiers, as a couple of fairly safe qualifiers faltered on the night.

I'd like to give particular commiserations to Czechia, who had a strong song that I thought would make it through with relative ease, but it wasn't Adonxs' strongest performance on the night, and clearly it didn't translate well enough for casual viewers. I would have loved Serbia to qualify, but in the end I had sort of resigned myself to the fact that it wasn't going to make it. Clearly my televotes from the UK weren't enough! I do think this must have only just missed out. Australia's non-qualification was also a bit of a shock, although I must say I'm not at all upset by it.

On a happier note, big congratulations to Denmark for breaking their four year non-qualification streak. I'm so glad that "Hallucination" managed to cut through in the end, and even if it doesn't get very far this evening, it's a fantastic result for the Danes. I'm also thrilled for Latvia, having qualified for the second year in a row, and with something so authentic to them. It's fantastic that songs like this can still appeal to a wider audience. Armenia really elevated their song on stage, and aren't undeserving of their place whatsoever either.

As with the first semi-final, I was sharing my live reactions to the show on Bluesky and you can read these here if you want to hear my thoughts in the moment.

We now have our running order for tonight, so all that remains is for me to make some predictions. I'll try to keep this one a bit more snappy than my semi-final predictions, because I don't think I'll have much that I haven't said already for every song, and I also don't want this post to turn into a novel. Now we've seen the full performances, I will be able to make some more informed guesses, but as I've proven this week, clearly I don't know as much about the tastes of Europe as I would like to think. Anyway, let's go through and dissect this year's Eurovision finalists!

Norway

The song chosen by producers to open the show tonight is Kyle Alessandro's "Lighter". I correctly predicted this as a qualifier on Tuesday, although I did say on the night that something felt a bit off about the performance. Kyle seemed to be relying quite a lot on the pre-recorded backing track, and it sounded like there was some sort of effect being used during the chorus. Either way, it is deserving of its place in the final, and will be a great opener. I'm not entirely sure how this will land tonight. I could see it getting a similar result to Marcus & Martinus last year, but equally it may just get a bit lost in the field. Juries should appreciate the slick nature of this package, and I think that on paper there's enough here for televoters to grab on to as well, but we'll have to see if the curse of first out strikes again.

Luxembourg

Next up is Luxembourg's Laura Thorn, and I am so glad that we have this song in the final. I don't think it will have qualified with flying colours particularly, but I did throw it a few votes on Thursday as I was a little bit nervous for it. Of all the songs that could have been given the 'death slot' this year, Luxembourg feels like a fairly standard choice: a safe package that was never in contention to win but should maintain the energy of the show and keep viewers engaged. A couple of elements in the performance on Thursday didn't seem to work quite as well as I would have wanted them to, but overall I think this song, and this package, is strong enough that it will stand up tonight, particularly with the juries. I'm less convinced about the televote for Luxembourg, but it should still be a decent showing.

Estonia

Following Luxembourg is Estonia, and I think this is quite an interesting choice from the producers. Normally with a producer-led running order, at least one of the first three numbers is a ballad or something else more downbeat. That isn't really the case this year, with "Espresso macchiato" continuing in the bouncy vein of Norway and Luxembourg before it. I will say that my opinions on this package have mellowed a bit following the semi-final performance on Tuesday, and having watched Tommy's green room interviews as well. Tommy's attitude towards the whole thing seems to have improved, and the Eurovision staging at least looks like it's making a bit of an effort. Ultimately, I think this is going to end up somewhere in the middle; with very few jury votes to give it a boost.

Israel

The producers had the choice of all 26 slots for this year's most controversial package, and they settled on number 4. This particular run of songs is strikingly similar to last year's running order, and it seems like once again Israel are being given a moment early on so as to both minimise their winning chances and allow the rest of the show to proceed without that shadow being cast. Yuval's performance in the semi-final was strong - I think it would have been a qualifier regardless of the circumstances but it no doubt received a bit of a boost. Personally, I see this getting a similar result to "Hurricane" last year, but probably a couple of places further down. I don't think "New Day Will Rise" is quite as strong of a song, and I would be surprised if the televote supports this quite as much as last year, but we'll see.

Lithuania

Now we come to another song that is somewhat more melancholic in the form of Katarsis' "Tavo Akys" for Lithuania. I thought the performance was delivered well on Thursday, and the staging was effective in capturing the mood of the song. Lithuania will have benefitted from diaspora support in the semi-final, and will do so again in the final, but apart from this I don't really see Katarsis getting far off the ground unfortunately. It's running quite early, between two songs that will both be attention-grabbing (albeit for different reasons) and relies on the connection to quite a specific demographic. As I've said before, I do think "Tavo Akys" is one of the strongest example of its genre that we've seen at Eurovision so far, but to me this doesn't feel like the sort of package that will be making waves on the scoreboard.

Spain

Spain are next to the stage, with Melody's "Esa diva". Had I been making the running order, I might have chosen this as my show opener, as it feels a bit more vibrant and exciting than Norway's package, but that might just be me. It's still not anything particularly new, but it's a polished performance that is delivered well. On Tuesday, I enjoyed this performance whilst it was happening, but wonder if it lacks a moment that will stick with viewers for the rest of the evening. That being said, we have to acknowledge that the voting lines are now open from the start of the show so perhaps people will act in the spur of the moment. Unfortunately, I find it hard to see this breaking out of the lower right-hand side of the scoreboard. It will pull in around 20 points from each side I think, and won't make a splash.

Ukraine

Then we move to Ukraine, whose 100% qualification record remains intact after a nervy moment during the semi-final when they were the last qualifier to be announced. From what I've heard from people in the arena, this is a package that works better on TV than it does live, but that's probably the right way round for it to be. This definitely isn't one of the stronger songs on the night, but there will definitely be people watching who are inclined to support this type of music, so I can see it gaining some traction in that regard. Ziferblat are good performers and get the most out of this package. There's a lovely moment at the end of the performance that might connect a bit more with people at home. This won't deliver one of Ukraine's better results, but with a fairly strong televote should by no means be an embarrassment.

United Kingdom

And now I take a deep breath, as it's time for the UK's Remember Monday. I don't know what it is that's not quite working here, but for some reason things don't seem to be coming together for the girls. On Thursday, the sound mixing didn't sound quite right and I thought the backing track was a bit too loud. Again, I've heard from people in the arena that they sound fantastic live, so clearly something's going wrong on the technical end. I think the slightly different version of the song we've got for Eurovision works well to iron out a couple of the inconsistencies that were making the song feel a bit disjointed. I must say that I'm not optimistic for our chances tonight. We should still get some jury support, but I think we are heading for a single figure televote, possibly even another zero - and I don't think this is going to make it any higher than 20th on the scoreboard.

Austria

In another slightly confusing choice from the producers, we have back to back vocal powerhouses here (although I did read somewhere after writing this that there will be an advert break between them) as Austria's JJ is next on stage. As with any fan favourite at this stage of the game, there's been so many conflicting opinions on Austria's staging, with some people confident that this is our winner, whilst others think it's out of contention entirely. For what it's worth, I don't think the staging harms this song particularly, but I think it's become apparent that Austria haven't quite managed to make the end of the song work on stage in a way that feels like a natural conclusion to the story. If nothing else, JJ's vocals will give him a lift with the juries, but I don't think it will be enough to get him over the line.

Iceland

Next up are one of this year's more surprising qualifiers, Væb from Iceland - who I think are just happy to be here. Their performance on Tuesday was the perfect Eurovision opener: energetic and bouncy, with better vocals than we've heard in the past from the boys. A repeat of that performance would be lovely, but I do wonder if Væb might try something slightly different. Whatever they do, I think Iceland is going to struggle with the juries and will be largely relying on the televote tonight. Bearing that in mind, Væb might do well to pack this as full of energy as they can without worrying too much about the vocals being perfect. Qualifying was a victory in itself, so consider this their victory lap. I don't see Iceland making it very far tonight, but "Róa" provides a welcome moment of fun in the line-up.

Latvia

In one of a few clear examples of the Christer Björkman 'saw-tooth' effect in this running order, we now move to Latvia. I am thrilled that this package qualified; Latvia now have a qualification streak for the first time since 2016, and it's fantastic that we have something with so much authenticity and such traditional elements, of course with the Latvian language as well. Tautumeitas are another act that have already won by qualifying to the final, but I feel that they have more of a chance than Væb to climb the scoreboard tonight. They won't be challenging the main contenders, and I don't think they'll be reaching the left-hand side, but I can see this package being appreciated by juries and televoters alike: the vocal performance of this has been absolutely stunning every time and there are people who come to Eurovision for exactly this sort of music.

Netherlands

Following Latvia is the Netherlands. In my semi-final prediction blog, I might have been a little bit dramatic about the fact that this staging underwhelmed me, and must now go back on those words somewhat because it turns out that the performance really isn't bad. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, a thirty second clip was not in fact enough to judge a three minute performance. Whilst I still don't think that the song's potential is being maximised, what we're getting on stage feels more authentic to the song - we have the celebration back! Claude's vocals have also improved since that preview clip which does help this. The Netherlands will be looking to score big with the juries and do well enough in the televote to keep them in the top ten when all is said and done - and that feels very achievable.

Finland

Closing out the first half of the final is Erika Vikman from Finland. She gave easily the most powerful performance in Thursday's semi-final, and will have qualified with no problems at all. I expect her package (ahem) to once again go down a storm in the arena. Erika is a brilliantly charismatic performer, and challenges you to try and take your eyes off her for any given second of her three minutes. The challenge is impossible. This will do very well for Finland, probably another top five result, but I don't think it's going to be able to clinch the victory tonight. Whilst I don't think it will do badly with juries by any means, it's definitely the sort of song that leans more towards the televote, which I think is going to end up too split this year to give Erika the advantage she will need to pull ahead of her rivals.

Italy

I think we can now shout 'saw-tooth!' at every entry until Denmark. Whilst this running order does have its quirks, it's also incredibly predictable in other areas. Anyway, the huge energy and power of Finland is followed by the wonderfully understated Lucio Corsi from Italy, who on Tuesday became the first artist in recent years to play a musical instrument live on the Eurovision stage, when he whipped out the harmonica during his performance. I still think it's a fantastic move from Italy to have the subtitles for this song, as it would have been so unfortunate if the message didn't reach the casual audience. As it is, I think this really is one of the most accessible songs in the field this year. The fan community have really been sleeping on this, but Italy are surely on for another top ten result, if not top five with this song.

Poland

We now move to the incredible energy of Poland's Justyna Steczkowska, with "Gaja". Justyna's performance on Tuesday was delivered with her usual conviction and seemingly limitless reserves of strength, however, I did note that she seemed a bit cautious at a couple of points, and I also don't think she delivered the best vocals we've heard from her during this process. All of these are very minor points which hopefully will be ironed out by now, but I'm not sure where Poland's ceiling is tonight. If I was to quantify it now, I'd say Poland won't be reaching the left-hand side of the board. I still don't think juries will go for this very much at all, and beyond the reliable diaspora and local voting, I don't know how well Poland's performance is going to come through the screen to unsuspecting viewers.

Germany

Next up is Germany, and "Baller", performed by Abor and Tynna. This package is hugely elevated from what we saw at the German national selection. The song has had a bit of a revamp that makes it feel more polished and less messy throughout; and there are several elements to the staging that feel very well thought out. It's definitely the right direction to have taken the song in, but my concern, perhaps ironically, is that they've almost taken it too far. I do think part of the appeal of this song was the general Charli XCX, slightly rough around the edges vibe that it had before, whereas now it feels like it's been through a bit of a 'Eurovision machine', which has taken some of that away. I'm still very nervous for Germany's result, and am getting a whiff of Lord of the Lost on the horizon unfortunately.

Greece

We are then given another chance to breathe and take things a bit more slowly for a moment whilst we enjoy Greece's Klavdia. This is another song that could have gone either way on Thursday, and I was so nervous when they left this one until the very end, but I am absolutely delighted that it made it. The stage show on Thursday was wonderfully crafted, with very powerful imagery that really made the whole thing stand out. Now it's in the final, I'm so excited to see how this does with the juries. In any just world, this gets into the top ten with the music experts: the song is beautiful and Klavdia's vocals are fantastic. In any case, it should have enough points already by the time the televotes are announced to stop it falling too far down the scoreboard, and this should bring in a good result for Greece.

Armenia

Following Klavdia is Parg from Armenia, with "Survivor". I didn't expect this one to qualify, but Armenia have really improved the package from what we saw at Depi Evratesil, and I think being the only song of its kind in the semi-final helped it on its way. I also don't think it's got any direct competition in tonight's field, so that should still be working in Armenia's favour, but I'm not sure if this is going to be ever so competitive this evening. It will, once again, draw in televotes from the people who like this sort of music, but I think everyone else is going to be able to find something stronger to vote for instead. To give him credit, Parg didn't deliver a bad vocal performance on Thursday, so the juries may recognise that, but I don't know if it will end up being enough for Armenia this year.

Switzerland

As host country, Switzerland drew their running order position at random back in March - and I think their chances have been maximised by what's around them. "Voyage" is offering us a delightfully understated package that is really quite special and so unlike everything else on display. The whole thing is filmed in a single continuous camera shot, which is a risk - as we saw on Tuesday when it didn't quite go to plan - but if things come together tonight, will be undeniably powerful. There's been talk in the fan bubble this week about Switzerland coming up round the outside and doing the double - and I don't think that's going to happen. It should score very well with the juries, and may even end up on the final split screen as jury winners, but a lot hinges on the televote reaction to this, which I think is far from certain.

Malta

I feel that the phrase 'from the sublime to the ridiculous' must have been invented for exactly this transition. From the soft power of Switzerland, we move to the noisy camp fun that Miriana Conte from Malta is "Serving". The performance is about as visually arresting as you would expect from this song, with so many different things for the viewer to keep track of that it's easy to lose focus on Miriana at times. I also think the general chaos of the performance is impacting Miriana's vocals slightly, as she seemed to be concentrating on everything else, which did make the whole thing feel a little bit messy. Malta are still going to benefit from their genius PR spin this year, but I don't think it's going to get the result some fans want. The song is too messy to score more than about 80 points from the juries, and Malta have a fairly dreadful track record with the televote.

Portugal

Next up are Napa, who will be performing "Deslocado", representing Portugal. I really didn't see this qualification coming, but it does make a lot of sense when I abandon my preconceptions as a Eurovision fan. I'm so glad that this made it through a televote-only semi-final, it does give me hope for the contest when the public prefer songs like this to the wacky of "Milkshake Man". This is another package that should do excellently with the juries. I expect it to get a similar result to Portugal's entry last year, "Grito". Iolanda did very well with the juries, meaning that a poor televote score wasn't enough to push her any lower than tenth. I wouldn't be at all surprised if "Deslocado" is in the jury's top five tonight, and think it's definitely another left-hand side result for Portugal, which really would be fantastic.

Denmark

Denmark are next, having finally broken their non-qualification streak! I'm so pleased for Sissal; it really felt like it could have gone either way on Thursday but I think she is a deserving finalist. As with a few previous entries, Denmark will be feeling already like Eurovision winners purely by virtue of reaching the final. Unfortunately, I can't really see this making it very far tonight. It's surrounded by several heavy hitters in the running order, and I still think the performance is too static to make the song stand out as much as it should. I'd like to re-state my theory that this is the sort of the song that does worse than expected by finishing eleventh and twelfth from a lot of countries, and not making it especially far up many people's rankings. Well done again to Sissal for qualifying, but I don't think she will be particularly competitive in this line-up.

Sweden

And at last we come to some of the big favourites, beginning with Sweden, who are still favourite to take the trophy at the time of writing. Their running order position is fairly ideal; they are providing this saw-tooth section of the show with the climax it doesn't otherwise receive, and by putting Denmark on before this, the producers have ensured that the crowd is warmed up and ready to party by the time KAJ take to the stage. That being said, I'm still not seeing this as a winner. I didn't get that kind of feeling from the performance on Tuesday, and I also read somebody on Bluesky comparing this to "Occidentali's Karma" from Italy - and I think they may be right. Don't get me wrong, this will do very well, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did manage to win, but I don't think it's quite going to get there. I did, however, have a dream the other night that this won both the jury and televote so you never know.

France

Then we reach the frankly odd choice to put two of the biggest favourites of the night on one after the other. It's clear that we, the audience, are supposed to be comparing the two in our heads. Louane needed a break both before and after her performance on Thursday in order to sort out all the sand, which it turns out is actually little bits of cork. Which probably don't get quite as everywhere as sand manages to. Louane's delivery of this song is stunning,, with the raw emotion cutting through in such a meaningful way. This will be another challenger for the jury victory, and I also have to acknowledge the huge televote scores of previous entries that Europe has clearly deemed 'traditionally French'. Barbara Pravi and Slimane both scored more points from the televote than they did from the jury. With all things considered, I think this is my bet for winner tonight.

San Marino

As the conclusion of the show draws near, one would be forgiven for thinking that the producers had chosen to close proceedings with the bouncy, crowd-pleasing Sammarinese entry. That's not quite the case (more on that in a moment) but Gabry Ponte has been given a very late running order position for "Tutta L'Italia". I always felt like this could have gone either way in the semi-final, but I'm a bit more confident now. Unfortunately for San Marino, I'm confident they won't be getting off the ground tonight. This isn't the sort of song juries gravitate towards, and I don't think the song stands out enough in the line-up to guarantee any sort of strong televote score. Well done to San Marino for making it through - it does have to be noted that this is still only their fourth final - but that might be the end of the praise and celebration.

Albania

The final entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 comes from Albania. This is a very interesting choice to me purely for the reason that the show would have made a lot more sense if this and San Marino were swapped. I wonder if the producers are trying to break the associations of the last running order position, and also shatter illusions about Balkan countries being treated unfairly in terms of the running order. It's striking to me that the producers have chosen to end the contest with a package that is so authentic and so powerful in its composition. Whilst I don't think "Zjerm" will be winning this evening, it should bring Albania one of their best results ever, pulling in votes from both the jury and the televote in the process. It's my favourite entry this year for a reason, and it will be something to look forward to during the rest of the acts.

There we have it - a line-up that is very varied and quite strong if you ask me. Predictions seem almost futile in such an open year, particularly given my lack of success in the week, but I have made a bit of a list below, so we can all point and laugh come tomorrow morning. At this point, I think it's France's to lose. To me, this is the song with the most obvious ability to draw from both sides of the vote. Austria and Switzerland probably won't bring in the televotes, and Finland and Sweden will suffer with the juries (although probably not as much as people think). 

I think there's a block of about seven or eight songs at the bottom that are, to me, clearly going to be occupying these positions, but the order of these could quite easily change tonight depending on what happens on stage. Everything else is a bit of an educated guess - I've tried to think about what both juries and televoters look for, and who is able to appeal to both sides (or not). Anyway, don't take the below too seriously.

1. France

2. Finland

3. Sweden

4. Austria

5. Switzerland

6. Italy

7. Israel

8. Albania

9. Netherlands

10. Norway

11. Ukraine

12. Portugal

13. Estonia

14. Malta

15. Greece

16. Poland

17. Luxembourg

18. Lithuania

19. Latvia

20. Armenia

21. Spain

22. Denmark

23. San Marino

24. Iceland

25. United Kingdom

26. Germany

That's my best guess at the moment, but all I can say is that I really don't know. For a lot of this year's songs, I don't think I'll feel sure until I've seen the full performance on stage, and even then we are likely to get a couple of shocks.

I'm excited to see the show, however, and the interval acts Switzerland have lined up for us. It will be interesting to see how Michelle gets on with joining the hosting team; Sandra and Hazel have, by and large, done quite well so far so hopefully that only improves.

This will probably be my last post here for a couple of weeks now. I'm intending to post an analysis of this year's results at some point soon, but not quite sure exactly when at the moment. I will, however, be sharing my live reactions to the show on Bluesky so make sure you go and follow that.

Thank you to those of you who have followed my blog this Eurovision season, and I hope you will stick around to see what I have in store in the future. Anyway, I think all that I can say now is... enjoy the show!