Eurovision 2025: Semi-Final 1 Prediction
Somehow, Eurovision week is here already! The season has absolutely flown by, and I can't quite believe that in just a few days time it will all be over. Before that, however, there is a lot still to unfold; beginning with the first semi-final. Fifteen countries will compete for ten places in Saturday's final, and the show will also feature exhibition performances from automatic qualifiers Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Within my song reviews that have been posted over the last few weeks, I tried to avoid making predictions as much as possible, due to a lack of information and wanting to focus on the packages themselves. However, now we have an idea of what the performances are going to look like on the night, I think it's about time that I finally share my personal prediction for the week's results. I'm finding both semi-finals quite difficult to predict this year as I think there's more songs than usual that could go either way depending on how they are received in their moment, with fewer songs having a seemingly nailed on place in the final. I also haven't been able to think about this for quite as long as I'd have liked to, so I apologise if it's all slightly incoherent and wouldn't be at all surprised if it turns out to be entirely wrong. At the end of the day, it's all a bit of fun and anything I say here is going to have no impact on the overall result. I'll be discussing the countries in performance order, before stating my predicted qualifiers, and also giving a quick moment to our automatic qualifiers. So without any further ado, let's see what we've got!
Iceland
First up is Iceland, with a performance not hugely different to what we saw at the national final but scaled up somewhat for the Eurovision stage. It's everything Væb do best: a fun, energetic performance that captures the spirit of the song. "Róa" makes a great show-opener as it's so catchy and upbeat that nobody is going to have a chance to get bored during this. The boys make good use of the space, and perform the song well supported by a few backing dancers. The whole thing feels slightly slicker than what we saw at Söngvakeppnin, and I think Væb's vocal performance has improved, which does help to make the package feel cleaner. As I said in my initial review, this song will appeal to the younger audience, and having the chorus right at the start does help it, but I'm not sure how well this will translate to the wider viewing public. I fear that it may get lost performing so early, and might not be remembered after everything else that we will see later on. Whilst this is more polished than its previous incarnation, I think there's only so much the delegation could have done with this song and I think it does run the risk of coming across as slightly 'all over the place'. Unfortunately for Væb, I don't see this song having the broad appeal to gather enough votes in enough countries to get it into that top ten, and I think Iceland might be looking at their third consecutive non-qualification this year.
Poland
Slovenia
Slovenia is running third in this semi-final, with Klemen's "How Much Time Do We Have Left" marking a bit of a change of pace after an energetic start to the show. Once again, the performance isn't dramatically different from what we've seen before; a slightly more low-key affair for the most part, although we do still have the trick of Klemen singing upside-down, which I'm not a huge fan of personally. There is, however, one added touch in the Eurovision performance that really does give the audience another element to connect to in that Klemen's wife, the subject of the song, appears on stage with him at one point in a moment sure to create goosebumps across the continent. This is one of those songs this year that I do think could go either way. Many in the Eurovision fan community, particularly in the last week or so, have entertained the prospect of this following a similar trajectory to that of Dons from Latvia last year, but I'm not entirely convinced. I still think this song feels very matter-of-fact and lacks the subtlety that I think it needs to give it that extra boost. As a slower song performing early on the night, I think the stars will need to align for Slovenia to qualify. I don't think it's impossible, and I won't be shocked if this makes it through in ninth or tenth place, however, at the moment, I'm leaning towards a 'no' on this one.
Estonia
After Slovenia, we come to Estonia, with "Espresso Macchiato" performed by Tommy Cash. I think I made my opinions on this song quite clear when I reviewed it a couple of weeks ago - and they haven't changed. I still think this whole package is irritating, arrogant and devoid of any musical quality. However, in a televote-only semi-final, it is unfortunately an almost certain qualifier. Tommy is delivering much of the same performance that we saw at Eesti Laul, with his trademark 'spaghetti legs' dance, and burly security guards joining him on stage. The visuals are bigger and brighter, presumably to compensate for the fact that Tommy will no longer be able to rely on name recognition alone to bring in the votes. This should do well from the same demographics that gave Käärijä and Baby Lasagna their televote victories, however, I don't think the song is bombastic enough to reach the lofty heights that either of those packages did - and I also think it's not going to have quite the same levels of universal appeal. It's a Marmite entry at its finest. That being said, there is of course no negative voting in Eurovision so I think I do begrudgingly have to say that Estonia will be making it through this year.
Ukraine
Next we come to Ukraine, who are bringing something quite different to what we have seen already. It has to be acknowledged that organising a Eurovision national selection isn't exactly one of Ukraine's priorities at the moment, so it makes sense that the package we are getting in Basel seems to be a much more well-resourced affair. Whilst I still don't think Ziferblat's song is one of the stronger entries this year, they do perform it well, and make good use of the space. That's not to say that it's being executed perfectly, and there are still issues with this staging, particularly I think it runs the risk of coming across a little bit disparate in parts, and feel like it may be more impactful if the band were closer together. The group's outfits are certainly striking, and if nothing else will capture the audience's attention. Although the Eurovision performance is definitely more polished than what we saw at Vidbir, I don't think it does a lot to elevate the song, which was the strength of previous Ukrainian packages such as "Teresa & Maria" and "Shum". However, I think this is another certain qualifier. Ukraine's televote power in Eurovision at the moment cannot be underestimated, with the war continuing to dominate headlines and an incredibly mobilised diaspora all over Europe. I don't see a world in which this doesn't finish in the televote top ten.
Sweden
And now it's time to discuss the favourites to win the whole thing, which is still Sweden's KAJ with "Bara bada bastu". As is common with Swedish entries, this is almost identical to the performance at Melodifestivalen, but elevated somewhat through increased practice. The song is novelty without coming across as a joke, and the stage show is very cleverly crafted to get that point across: it's engaging but still seems professional. KAJ perform it very well; they are clearly used to performing together as a group and have an enthusiasm for their music that shines through - the whole package still feels entirely authentic. The song is accessible, with its themes coming through loud and clear from the imagery on stage, and shouldn't be too alienating. This is an obvious magnet for televotes, and should sail through to the final. It may not do quite as well with voters in Southern or Eastern Europe as it will with Nordic neighbours Iceland and Norway, but that shouldn't cause them too much of a problem. The running order is also favourable for Sweden, who are sandwiched between two weaker entries that may not connect quite as well. How well KAJ will do when they get to the final is less certain, but they will have no problems tonight. Sweden have an impressive qualification streak, and that won't be changing this year.
Portugal
The difficult task of following Sweden had to go to somebody, and it's Portugal's Napa who find themselves in this unenviable position. "Deslocado" is probably the most relaxed song in this semi-final (at least of the competing countries) but I think it has been staged well, and Napa are just about managing to avoid getting lost on the big stage. Portugal seem to have found a bit of a knack in recent years for qualifying out of what looks on paper like tricky semi-finals by staging their entries in a way that allows for an instant connection with the audience. It's clear that once again, the stage performance is elevating this song, however, I worry that "Deslocado" is simply too quiet, too laid-back to have much of an impact. In my review, I shared my feeling of enjoying the song whilst it's on but forgetting it soon after it finishes - and I fear that this could be its undoing tonight. Stuck between the far more eye-catching Sweden and Norway in the running order, I'm not sure how many people will be picking up the phone to vote for this. Whilst I am not predicting Portugal to qualify at this point, I absolutely don't think it's dead on arrival, and could be another song that squeaks through in ninth or tenth. I would be surprised if we don't get any slower songs qualifying from this field, and this is a package designed to optimise its appeal to its target audience - it knows what it's doing and does it well.
Norway
Norway's Kyle Alessandro has certainly had an interesting couple of weeks. After rehearsing for the first time on stage in Basel, he underwent emergency surgery to remove a wisdom tooth and was forced into vocal rest for several days. Thankfully, he seems to be back to full health now and ready to perform "Lighter" in the semi-final. The performance is, again, an up-scaled version of what we have seen before, with Kyle keeping the armour he wore at Melodi Grand Prix, and much of the same energetic routine that won over juries and public alike in Norway. Kyle is an incredibly charismatic performer, and I think this is a package with something to appeal to all demographics: the younger viewers will be fascinated by his outfit, whilst the catchy, well-delivered hook and slick dance breaks should serve Norway well when it comes to other people seeing this for the first time. I think Kyle can be relatively confident in making it to Saturday night. I don't think "Lighter" will be challenging the top few songs in this semi-final, but it should be able to garner fairly widespread support in enough countries across Europe in order to get it over the line. Again, I'm not sure how far this is going to go once it's in the final, but this is an example of a competent song with a talented performer and quality stage show - a combination of ingredients that should extend Norway's qualification streak.
Belgium
Following "Lighter" is "Strobe Lights", performed by Belgium's Red Sebastian. This year, it's Flemish broadcaster VRT that is in charge of the Belgian Eurovision entry. VRT do tend to be more reliable when it comes to staging than their counterpart in Wallonia, and this year seems to be no exception. Out of all the songs this year that have come from national finals (and have therefore been performed in a live competition format already), this is probably one of the packages to have changed the most for the Eurovision stage. I think what we're getting now is far more polished, cohesive, and professional than what we saw at Eurosong. Red Sebastian is clearly at ease during the performance, and on a good day, should be able to deliver slick vocals to match the slick stage show. From what we've seen, any doubts I may have had about Belgium qualifying have been completely sent away. Like Norway, I don't think this is going to be challenging for the win tonight, but it only needs to get into the top ten, and it should be able to do that fairly comfortably. I'm also more optimistic for the prospects of this song once it makes it to the final. This strikes me as the sort of song that tends to please juries more than televoters: a well-performed dance song with throwback elements to it. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see "Strobe Lights" getting on to the left-hand side of the board in the final, and it shouldn't struggle to qualify.
Azerbaijan
Next up is Mamagama from Azerbaijan, performing "Run With U". This song was selected internally, and as such, we didn't have any particular idea of what they were going to do on stage. What we've ended up with is a performance that has the tight-knit elements Ukraine lacks, but doesn't feel quite as confident as the Portuguese performers. It's by no means harming the package particularly, but I believe I said during my review of this song that the staging would be crucial in deciding whether or not it makes it through - and unfortunately, I'm not sure if this show is going to be enough. Whilst I think it does give the various parts of the song their own moment, the vocal delivery in what we've seen so far has been strangely grating. The lead singer sounds off-key in the chorus and seems to perform the rest of the song in a slightly exaggerated manner that first-time listeners might just find off-putting. Unfortunately for Azerbaijan, I think this might be the least likely qualifier of tonight's line-up. That's not to say it's the worst song, but I just can't see where the votes are going to come from for this. Every time I think of a plausible factor that might help Azerbaijan, I subsequently think of another country that is also delivering that same factor, except better. Whilst I do quite like this song and would like to see it deliver a shock result, I can't see past it getting a bit lost in the crowd.
San Marino
We then come to San Marino, and Gabry Ponte's "Tutta L'Italia". This is definitely one of San Marino's better Eurovision entries, however, I think it has a couple of major bumps on its road to qualification. The main factor going against San Marino this year would have to be the poor performance of previous DJ-based entries at Eurovision, with Gromee, Darude and Lumix failing to connect with the audience at home. Arguably, those entries were all staged in a way that should in theory be more likely to connect with televoters, purely for the fact that they all had the singers visible on stage. Here, Gabry is accompanied on stage by two backing singers, both of whom are masked. I think this is going to significantly harm the ability of first-time listeners to appreciate, remember, and vote for this song. It risks coming off as a bit anonymous, and arguably a whole lot of nothing in particular. I do have to say, however, that San Marino are doing everything else they can to get this to the final - the pyro should serve it well, and they seem to be getting the camerawork right. It really could end up being one of those packages that gets people moving in the arena - if it connects. For me, this is one of those songs that could still go either way. I wouldn't be surprised if "Tutta L'Italia" just fails to make it through, but equally I think there is enough of a chance of it getting over the line that it can't be written off yet.
Albania
Albania's entry may be my personal favourite this year, but I'm going to try to be as neutral as possible for the purposes of making a prediction. Shkodra Elektronike are performing "Zjerm" in a way that keeps the soul of the Festivali i Këngës performance whilst making the required changes for the Eurovision stage. Of course we don't have the orchestra at Eurovision, but the instrumentation of the song works well in the arena, and the Albanian delegation have poured more money than ever before into this stage show. I think it's paying off, as this performance of "Zjerm" should be elevating it to a place where it can appeal to all its target demographics. The visuals are arresting, with lighting, camerawork and pyro being used to full effect. Beatriçe's vocals are still outstanding, and hopefully Kolë's part of the song will provide a powerful contrast. I think this is going to qualify with flying colours. Albania is a country that has a tendency to do unexpectedly well with the televote when they bring packages that feel authentic to them - I think Eurovision fans forget all too often that "Duje" was in the televote's top ten in 2023. With Switzerland, Italy and Cyprus voting in this semi-final, it should have some guaranteed support to get it off the mark and I think there will be enough people across the continent who like this to push it up the rankings. Hopefully this will be Albania's best result ever!
Netherlands
Following Albania is the Netherlands, with Claude performing "C'est La Vie". This was another internal selection, so again we didn't have any major ideas about what this might look like prior to the release of rehearsal footage. The Netherlands have a patchy record when it comes to staging, with some excellent hits but also a few fairly dire misses. Unfortunately for Claude, I think this stage show might come closer to the latter category. It's not dreadful by any stretch of the imagination, but in my opinion it doesn't allow the exuberance of the song to fully translate. I spoke in my review of this song about my confusion surrounding the place of songs like this at Eurovision, and I do think that the delegation have now hit a similar stumbling block, as I'm not sure "C'est La Vie" lends itself particularly well to a live televised performance. That being said, they could still have done a lot better with this - at the moment, it's all very dark and intimate, rather than letting Claude's charisma shine through with bright colours and an energetic performance that would have showed first-time listeners the true extent of his talent. Claude's vocals are also leaving quite a bit to be desired, and he seems to be straining to hit quite a few of the notes. I do think this is still a likely qualifier - the strength of the song should be enough to keep it in the top ten, however, I think it has lost its status as a near-certain finalist.
Croatia
The penultimate competing song in this semi-final is Croatia's "Poison Cake". As I said in my review of this song fairly recently, the successor to "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" was always going to have a job on their hands, and I think this song had an uphill battle to qualification from the start. However, out of everything that we could feasibly have seen on stage for a song called "Poison Cake", the Croatian delegation have given us a relatively promising performance. It's another one that's quite different to what we saw at the national final, which I think is positive as that performance really wasn't great. The Eurovision show feels more professional and more mature, and doesn't suffer from the same 'school project' feel that the original performance had. The visuals will attract the audience's attention, Marko's styling is much better, and the whole routine feels tighter and more put together. I do think this song is in about the best position it could be to make it through, but it will still be tight. It's definitely not dead on arrival, and I don't think it will be in the bottom three of this semi-final, but I'm not sure if I can see it coming into the top ten. That would be a shame for Croatia, given their incredible result last year, but I think it's the way the cookie is going to crumble tonight.
Cyprus
And finally, we reach our last entry - Theo Evan performing "Shh" for Cyprus. When it was announced that Cyprus would be closing the show, there was much speculation around what incredible staging we would be treated to, and I think it's fair to say that it's certainly a show. The clip that has been released quite cleverly doesn't reveal too much of the final product, but there's enough to suggest that this is going to be one of those performances that keeps the audience engaged from start to finish. Theo's vocals, another unknown quantity before rehearsals, also seem to be holding up which should work in Cyprus' favour. The staging seems to be striking a good balance between keeping it simple - see Theo's outfit and the plain background - and whatever shenanigans will be going down later on with that scaffolding. I do think this will most likely be advancing to the final. It's got the prime running order position and a strong staging package that should help it stay in the mind of a first-time listener. Whilst the song possibly isn't as strong as the direct competition it has from countries like Norway, it's still got enough of the earworm factor to stop it from falling down the memory vacuum, and I think everything around this will be enough to get it through. What will happen on Saturday I can't say, but hopefully Theo will give Cyprus a result to be proud of.
That's everything for this semi-final, so all that remains is for me to give a final prediction. I think this semi-final is a bit easier to predict in that there's more songs that feel like fairly safe qualifiers, and only two or three that could go either way - whereas in the second semi-final, I think there's still a good five songs fighting for two spaces in the final. The below ranking is based on how likely I think the songs are to qualify - so in a sense, I suppose it's an approximate prediction for the finishing order, but that isn't necessarily what it's intended to be. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if there's a couple wrong here - I've tried to base it on the relatively little rehearsal footage we've seen, so of course there remains the potential for a surprise package during the show.
1. Sweden
2. Albania
3. Estonia
4. Ukraine
5. Poland
6. Norway
7. Cyprus
8. Netherlands
9. Belgium
10. San Marino
11. Slovenia
12. Croatia
13. Portugal
14. Iceland
15. Azerbaijan
I have erred on the side of optimism for San Marino, as I do think the song is catchy enough to appeal to a first-time audience, whilst I do still have my doubts about the ability of Slovenia's entry to connect with the audience in a way that means it's not forgotten by the end of the night.
The final word must go to our automatic qualifiers, who are performing in exhibition in this semi-final. Spain aren't doing anything particularly revolutionary, and is possibly a little too static, but the performance is generally executed well. Italy have made the good decision to include subtitles with their entry to get the song's brilliant message across, and I think this is strong enough to get them into the top ten once again. Switzerland are keeping things delightfully low-key, and should be a welcome moment of quiet in the final on Saturday.
I for one am very much looking forward to the return of Eurovision, and seeing how Switzerland take on hosting - including the new format for announcing the qualifiers, which I am trying to remain open-minded about. My predictions for the second semi-final should be up very soon, so do keep your eyes peeled for that. Until then, enjoy the show!
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