Eurovision 2026: Semi-Final 2 Prediction
Eurovision is back! Back with a bang? Maybe not. Even if
everything didn’t feel so distinctly off this year due to certain events, the
production ORF is giving us feels like a real downgrade from the last few
years. Maybe we’ve been spoilt with Hannah, Petra and Hazel in consecutive
years (not forgetting the wonderful people who co-hosted with them), but
Michael and Victoria are wooden, unfunny and lacking in any chemistry. The production
team seem to be trying to cast Michael as the ‘funny one’ (hence all the
strange outfits), but it just isn’t working. He’d be much better in a similar
role to Jan Smit from 2021. And Victoria just seems so… vapid. Anyway, I might
be able to give the hosts a bit of a pass had the rest of the show been better.
I will say that I really enjoyed the acrobatic performance we saw, but the
Eurovision quiz and the “Opposites” song were both frankly painful to watch. I’d
be quite happy to ban all previous Eurovision contestants from coming back as interval
acts – particularly if they didn’t qualify in the first place! Never mind, we
apparently are being treated to JJ’s new single tonight, which should be an
improvement.
Anyway: the results. The ten qualifiers were Belgium,
Croatia, Finland, Greece, Israel, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Serbia and
Sweden; meaning that Estonia, Georgia, Montenegro, Portugal and San Marino have
been eliminated. I managed to guess eight of those correctly (in fact, the
eight I said I was most confident about on Tuesday), but Belgium and Poland took
me by surprise. The latter I can understand: for me, it was a case of a weak
song being elevated by everything else around it, and I can get behind that qualifying
for the final on the strength of the performance. Belgium, on the other hand. I
will be very interested to see exactly where the votes came from for this,
because in my humble opinion, the song wasn’t very good, the vocals weren’t very
good, and the performance… wasn’t very good either. I thought “Dancing on the Ice”
would be more of a jury song than a televote song, but it clearly can’t have
done too badly with the public. Regardless, congratulations to all ten
qualifiers.
Commiserations, on the other hand, to our fallen soldiers. I
do feel for the Bandidos do Cante, having broken Portugal’s rather impressive
qualification streak. I really saw a path for this to qualify, and I think it
might have just fallen on the wrong side of the line in the end. Montenegro not
making it through was also disappointing, particularly as I thought Tamara delivered
an excellent performance on the night, though I did see it coming and think the
juries may have marked this one down. I’ve been on a strange journey with
Estonia’s song this year, from being rather annoyed when it was selected for
Eurovision to quite sad when it didn’t qualify. Unfortunately, this got off to a
bad start from the very first note and never quite recovered (though it wasn’t
helped by some particularly shoddy camerawork). Georgia’s song just didn’t work
on stage; it felt amateurish, and I suppose in a sense it was. The vocals weren’t
great and the performance just didn’t have enough going on – though of course
this result is disappointing nonetheless. San Marino never really stood a chance,
but was better live than in the studio. Senhit performed well as ever, and
definitely did not need any ‘help’ from Boy George.
If you want to have a read of my live reactions to the show,
you can do so here. I’ll also be sharing my thoughts as we go through
the show this evening. Tonight, we have another fifteen countries competing for
the final ten places in Saturday’s final. The show will also feature
performances from the representatives of Austria, France and the United
Kingdom, who have qualified for the final automatically. So without any further
ado, let’s get into it!
Bulgaria
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
First up tonight is Bulgaria, another country returning to
Eurovision after a period of absence. From what we’ve seen so far of “Bangaranga”,
the song seems to have had a bit of a revamp for the bigger stage, though I don’t
think it helps particularly – to me, it seems only more busy and chaotic. That
being said, if the audience in the arena latch onto this, it does have the
potential to go down a storm and really get the show off to an energetic start.
Dara’s vocals aren’t perfect, but far from cringeworthy and should be enough
for this sort of package. My concern for Bulgaria this year lies in how it will
be received by the juries. The song really doesn’t reinvent the wheel, and if
it does end up feeling as incohesive as it looks at the moment, I could see
this struggling to make it through tonight.
Small side note: watch out for this song getting a
suspiciously high televote score from countries with smaller viewership numbers:
Albania, Azerbaijan etc. – Dmitris Kontopoulos is at work here…
Azerbaijan
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Next is Azerbaijan, with a song that fits the ‘number two’
stereotype a bit more than “My System” did. I think its fair to say that I’m a
bit more sympathetic towards this than most of the fan community, but unfortunately
even I don’t think Jiva has a chance this evening. In the snippet, she is
performing more of the song in Azerbaijani than in the studio version, which might
make it stand out a bit more, and certainly gives some authenticity to the package.
Whilst I don’t think this will be qualifying (or coming particularly close), I
also don’t think it will be a complete wash-out, because she can at least
perform it live, and juries should respect the professionalism of the piece.
But at the end of the day, there’s no way “Just Go” makes it out of a
semi-final as strong as this one.
Romania
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
Well first things first, welcome back Romania – and the country
is certainly returning to Eurovision with a bang, and its best entry in a
number of years. This looks fantastic on stage, with lighting effects and
camera angles being used very well to build tension. The costumes Alexandra and
her troupe are wearing also fit nicely with the song’s imagery and theming.
Alexandra’s vocals seem to be holding up, but the operatic parts of the song
really give her the opportunity to create something spectacular if she pulls
them off well, and hopefully the juries will recognise that talent – though I
fear they might be put off by everything else. Nevertheless, I do think this
will qualify relatively easily on the strength of the televote alone, and I for
one would welcome seeing Romania in the final again.
Luxembourg
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
Performing fourth in this semi-final is Eva Marija from
Luxembourg, and something about this package feels a little bit too childlike
for my liking. Of course, we’ve only seen thirty seconds of the performance so
far, but something about the visual effects in the pre-chorus and the way Eva
skips and jumps around as she’s singing is very Junior Eurovision. That may
well endear it to some, but others may just find it a bit saccharine. Also,
does Eva’s voice remind anyone else of Lena’s cockney accent? I think the
juries might actually vote for this a bit more than the fans seem to think – if
we were still in a televote-only system, I would have very little hope for
this, but I do think there’s a chance Luxembourg sneaks through. Nobody saw
Belgium coming on Tuesday – could Benelux go two from two?
Czechia
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Czechia is next up, with the reflective and mysterious “Crossroads”.
I’m pleased to report that Daniel can sing this live, which is clearly a major
positive. This song would have sunk without a trace if the vocals were lacking
in any way, but Daniel is delivering it excellently, and the delegation seems
to have staged it very effectively as well (though Daniel’s shirt might need an
iron before the live show). This is a contender to do very well with the
juries, both tonight and in the final – I think it will qualify barring a major
flop with the televote, which can’t entirely be discounted, but I’m remaining
optimistic. Even if it ends up being a little bit too inaccessible for those
viewers hearing it for the first time, I think it will have enough jury support
to get it over the line.
Armenia
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
Bringing the tempo up a bit is Armenia, the country I
thought might have opened this semi-final. Simón is giving us a very
energetic performance which should draw the audience in. He starts with a group
of dancers in a lift, wearing an outfit covered with post-it notes. In the
clip, his vocals are good enough to carry the song – and that’s all they need
to do. “Paloma Rumba” isn’t the sort of song that needs Daniel’s voice to carry
off, in fact, I think Simón is matched well to this song. I wasn’t sure about this
song’s qualification chances before rehearsals, but having watched the clip, I’m
more hopeful than I was. I was wrong about Armenia last year, but this year I
think televoters will be on board, and if the rest of the performance is as
well put-together as the snippet, it could well be enough to qualify.
Switzerland
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
We now move to Veronica Fusaro of Switzerland, performing “Alice”.
Her performance is quite similar to Romania’s in a number of ways: the lighting
and use of ropes during the performance really help some of the song’s darker
undertones come to the surface in a way that they might not otherwise have been
able to. It’s also nice to see Veronica’s guitar making an appearance, even if
it isn’t live (something that has been unfortunately highlighted recently).
However, I don’t think this song is quite as instant as Romania’s, nor is it
quite as artsy as something like Czechia’s entry. As such, I fear it might end
up getting lost somewhere in the middle, with a reasonable show of support likely
from juries but potentially not very many televotes to show for itself. I like
this song and do think it deserves to qualify, but as I’ve said already, this
semi-final really is quite strong and I wouldn’t be surprised if Switzerland
just falls out of the top ten.
Cyprus
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Next is Antigoni with “Jalla” for Cyprus. In my opinion,
this is one of the songs this year that hasn’t been elevated particularly for
the Eurovision stage. The concept actually seems a bit ill-thought-out at
times, with the “dancing on the table” line being taken quite literally, and
rather too much white for my liking during the snippet we’ve seen so far. Like
Bulgaria, this is a song that will come to life a bit more with a live
audience, so hopefully that gives it a boost. I also have my concerns about
Antigoni’s vocals – of course, what we have seen is only a rehearsal, but if
she performs like that this evening, I fear we could see a repeat of “Sekret”
or “Ela” from 2022. A fortnight ago, I thought this was a dead-certain qualifier,
but I’m now living in a world where it could make a shock exit tonight.
Latvia
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Let me be clear before I start discussing this one: this is
my favourite song of this year’s line-up. Am I allowing that to cloud my
judgement? Maybe slightly. But this song needed subtitles! The lyrics are so
impactful and frankly heartbreaking at times, and it’s such a shame that the casual
audience isn’t going to experience that. Understanding the lyrics also makes
the rest of the performance make a lot more sense, and without them this might
just come across as yet another ballad. Thankfully, the jurors will have the lyrics
(with a translation) to hand when they watch the show, so that should count for
something, and Atvara certainly won’t struggle too much on the vocal front. I also
think the melody might just be immediate enough to leave an impact with
televoters (it certainly was for me) – if Dons managed it, why can’t Atvara?
Denmark
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Another of this year’s favourites, Denmark has chosen to
release the first thirty seconds as its rehearsal snippet to keep us guessing
as much as possible. As expected, the performance looks like an upgraded
version of what we saw at the national final. It looks like what “Dizzy” by
Olly Alexander was trying to achieve – though this time it actually works with
the song’s mysterious vibe. Søren seems to be delivering vocally and
the choreography looks slick and professional. It will be interesting to see how
the atmosphere builds throughout the rest of this performance, particularly
with Søren’s
big note as the song reaches its climax, but clearly this is going to have no
trouble reaching the final – it’s probably more of a jury song than a televote
song, but will do well with both sides of the vote this evening.
Australia
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
It’s always interesting when the producers place two
favourites next to each other in the running order, but that’s what’s happened
here, with Australia’s Delta Goodrem next to take the stage. Delta is a
world-class vocalist, and that really comes through in the rehearsal clip. She
brings a slightly ordinary song to life, and hopefully the final chorus should
be enough to send shivers down spines across the continent. My only gripe is
that it’s all a little bit static – again, I’m basing this only off what I’ve
seen so far, so there may well be more to this performance, but I just want something
else to happen. Either way, this will bring Australia back to the final. It’s
another contender to win the jury vote, which makes its televote position
largely irrelevant. Even if “Eclipse” doesn’t come within the top few with the
public, it will do well enough to take it over the line.
Ukraine
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
This is potentially a controversial opinion, but if this
came from any other country, it would be struggling to qualify. “Ridnym” is an
earnest song, and Leléka performs it well (though it might not sound so impressive
after Delta), but some of the lyrics are downright nonsensical and at the end
of the day, the package doesn’t appear to be giving us anything new. It’s
certainly not one of Ukraine’s stronger stage shows, and doesn’t seem to know
what it’s trying to do – to my mind, it doesn’t elevate (or indeed complement)
the song particularly and, like Cyprus, doesn’t feel like too much thought was
put into it. I am willing to eat my words, however, after seeing the full
performance, and I also fully acknowledge that this will go through tonight,
even if that wouldn’t be my personal preference.
Albania
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
Another of my favourites this year, but this snippet
honestly gave me goosebumps. This performance has the subtitles that Latvia so
desperately needs, and in a way that doesn’t feel particularly intrusive (if it
was me, I might not have bothered to translate the verses though). Seeing Alis’
mother on the screen at the back of the stage (at least, I think it’s Alis’
mother) was such a shock to the system in the best possible way, and I hope the
message of this song comes through without feeling too heavy-handed. I think this
is another relatively safe qualifier: generally speaking, Albania does well with
the televote (particularly when singing in Albanian) and whilst I expect a
slightly lower score from the juries (I’m still bitter about how they treated “Zjerm”),
no music professional should be ranking this too low and it should definitely
end up in the top ten.
Malta
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
The penultimate entry tonight comes from Malta, and it’s
another one that I do quite like. The clip that has been released is of the song’s
final chorus, a similar effect to the one at the national final that made me ‘get’
“Bella” for the first time. And it still works now – it’s professional, clean
and Aidan performs well (I particularly like the way the backing vocals
complement his voice) – but I just want to turn the dial up a few notches. If we
picked up this exact clip and slotted it in halfway through the song, then
built from there, imagine how intense the ending could be! I really hope this
song qualifies, and I think it’s got a reasonable chance of doing so, though it’s
not a guarantee. Even something as bombastic as “Serving” didn’t do very well
with the televote for Malta, so Aidan will definitely be relying on the experts
to pull him through tonight.
Norway
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
This is one of those songs that works much better live than
it does in the studio – and at Eurovision, that’s the right way round for
things to be! Jonas is dripping with charisma; in fact, so much of it that the
EBU has asked him to tone down his performance. Initially, I wasn’t sure
whether this would be enough to get Norway into the final, but I think the
televote will really go for this. Juries may be less convinced (though that’s
something Norway should be used to by now), but given that this is closing the show,
and is one of the only upbeat entries in the second half, it’s going to be
memorable and will stand out in the recap as well. In all honesty, I think this
is going to deliver a better result on Saturday than most people are expecting
it to – it’s well executed, has no direct competition and should engage
first-time listeners in exactly the right way.
This semi-final is, in my opinion, much stronger than
Tuesday’s, and as such, I’m finding it much harder to predict the qualifiers. In
an ideal world, I think I’d send thirteen or fourteen of these songs through
and knock out a few from the first semi-final, but that might just be me. On
Tuesday, I said that I was fairly confident in eight of my ten predictions:
here, I’d say there’s only six songs I would be hugely shocked to see out of
the final. Of course, I will give the same disclaimer that I always do, which
is that I have incomplete information here. I don’t know every detail of each
performance, and I will inevitably be shocked by certain details during the live
show. The below is based on everything I have seen at the time of writing.
- Denmark
- Australia
- Ukraine
- Albania
- Romania
- Norway
- Malta
- Cyprus
- Czechia
- Latvia
- Armenia
- Switzerland
- Bulgaria
- Luxembourg
- Azerbaijan
If this was my personal top ten, I’d probably have Armenia
in over Ukraine, and might also take out Norway or Czechia, though I’d really
struggle to pick between the last few (because they are all too good!). I’m looking
on the bright side for a couple of songs here, particularly Latvia, but I think
it’s almost anyone’s game. Almost. Sorry Azerbaijan.
Finally, a word on our automatic qualifiers. Austria’s performance
should go down a storm with the home crowd; it’s suitably bizarre and Cosmó brings
exactly the right amount of energy to it. It probably isn’t going to do ever so
well on Saturday but it’s three minutes of much-needed fun. France, on the
other hand, probably is going to do quite well on Saturday, if Monroe’s vocal
performance in the rehearsal clip is anything to go by. Goodness me, she can sing.
Whilst I would like to see the juries rewarding different genres of music, it’s
going to be hard for them to look past this package. And then we have the
United Kingdom. I can see what the staging is trying to do, but for me it just
isn’t working, and unfortunately Sam doesn’t seem to be able to carry the song
very well. I’d like to wait until I’ve seen the full thing, particularly after
I’ve seen how much the audience engage with the call and response section, but
unfortunately I’m not feeling too hopeful about this.
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