Eurovision 2026: Semi-Final 1 Prediction
Before you read this post about Eurovision 2026, I encourage you to have a look at my statement on this year’s contest.
It’s Eurovision time again! It hardly seems like yesterday
that we watched JJ take the trophy in Basel, but somehow the first semi-final
is already upon us, with fifteen countries set to compete for ten places in
Saturday’s final. We will also have exhibition performances from automatic
qualifiers Germany and Italy. As was the case last year, the EBU has released
various pictures from arena rehearsals and also a thirty-second snippet of each
performance, so we have a little taster of what to expect but could still be
surprised yet. The following is a short assessment of each competing song’s
chances tonight – of course, there is still a lot that I don’t know, so there may
be some unwise predictions here, but it’s my best guess as of now. A week or
two ago, before rehearsals commenced in Vienna, I published some detailed
predictions of the semi-final results on Bluesky – I’ll say now that this
prediction is not the same as that! I’ll be discussing the songs in performance
order, before giving my list of predicted qualifiers, and also briefly
discussing the aforementioned automatic qualifiers. I’d love to hear your
thoughts and predictions, so do share them either in the comments or over on
Bluesky, where I’ll probably be sharing some live reactions during the show
this evening.
Moldova
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
Up first in this semi-final is Moldova, and Satoshi is
certainly somebody who knows how to get the party started. This is bound to go
down a storm with the live audience, and hopefully that comes through on the
broadcast. I’m pleased to see that it appears that the package has been
smoothed out a little for the Eurovision stage, with backing vocalists
providing a little bit more polish that juries will hopefully appreciate and
getting a bit more involved in the choreography as well. The graphics on the
screen at the back are also being used effectively, and overall this
performance looks like it’s really going to build an atmosphere. I still don’t
think the juries will be particularly enthusiastic about “Viva, Moldova!”, but
with a solid televote score, it shouldn’t have much trouble qualifying.
Sweden
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
Sweden is next, singing second in an apparent attempt to
silence fans who think the country is favoured by the EBU. Felicia is bringing
a performance that is more or less identical to what we saw at
Melodifestivalen, though with fewer dancers to comply with Eurovision
regulations. The rehearsal clip that has been released includes the ‘screen
pop’ moment that gave me chills when I first saw it, so I’m very glad to see
that returning, even if it is executed slightly differently. As usual, Felicia
seems to be on point vocally and, with such a polished performance, I think she
is a real contender to win the jury vote tonight. The televote reaction may be
slightly more lukewarm, but I think this is another safe qualifier – I can’t
see ten songs finishing ahead of “My System” at the end of the evening.
Croatia
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
Lelek from Croatia are performing third, delivering a very
dramatic performance of “Andromeda”. The snippet selected by the Croatian
delegation is towards the end of the song, just as the mood and energy is
reaching its peak. We have effective lighting, impactful camerawork and of
course the smoke machines are working overtime. Not to mention the excellent
harmonies coming from the group, and the traditional costumes will probably
bring in a few votes as well. Croatia will benefit here from the presence of both
Serbia and Montenegro, and I think this package will be another to score highly
with the juries, in a similar way to Latvia’s Tautumeitas in last year’s final,
but I don’t think it will do too badly with the televote either, and I’m
relatively confident in its qualification chances.
Greece
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
It’s the first of the big favourites now, with Akylas
performing “Ferto” for Greece. I do need to acknowledge that I’m not the
biggest fan of this song, so perhaps take my opinions here with a pinch of
salt, but something about this performance isn’t working for me. “Ferto” is
absolutely a song that will feed off the energy of a live audience, so I’m
trying to keep in mind that the package will feel very different when we see it
this evening, but at the moment the whole thing feels weirdly amateurish, and Akylas
rather unfortunately looks like he’s on the wrong stage. Again, I’m not the
biggest fan of this to start with, and I’m sure there will be people who are
thrilled with this in its current form, but for me the song isn’t being
elevated by the performance at the moment.
Portugal
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
I counted Portugal out last year. I thought Napa’s
“Deslocado” wouldn’t leave enough of an impact on viewers to make it through to
the final, and oh how wrong I was. That’s why I’m inclined to look kindly upon
this year’s Portuguese entry “Rosa”. Sometimes a whisper is louder than a
shout, and Portugal has perfected this kind of Eurovision entry in years gone
by. I don’t think this is by any means a safe qualifier, and it probably
doesn’t help that it comes in arguably the stronger half of the show, but I could
really see the Bandidos do Cante making it through tonight. Whilst I don’t
think it will be up at the very top with the juries, it should still score
reasonably well, and even if it falls out of the televote’s top ten, I don’t
think it’s going to be enough to do too much damage.
Georgia
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
In my ideal scenario, this song would qualify. I think it’s
catchy and fun, and I would definitely place it among my top ten songs in this
evening’s line-up. But I do fear for its chances tonight. Yes, the song is
catchy, but that alone won’t be enough to win over the national juries, who
tend to look for a bit more substance, and the televote is, to my mind, more
likely to gravitate towards Moldova or Greece. Bzikebi are performing it
competently enough, though at times in the clip it seems a bit too obvious that
only one of the group works as a full-time professional musician. Under last
year’s televote-only system, I might have given this a higher chance of
qualifying, and I don’t think the song is dead in the water, but as far as I
can see, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Georgian wasps.
Finland
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
Finland, as this year’s big favourite, has kept its cards
fairly close to its chest so far, with the first thirty seconds of the
performance being released as the official snippet. One of the big talking
points of the last week has been the revelation that Linda Lampenius has been
granted special permission to play her violin live on stage – to me, this
really comes through in the clip. I’m not entirely sure how I feel about this
apparent change to the rules, but equally I’m not entirely sure how much difference
it will make for the first-time listener. Either way, if the rest of the
performance is anything like what we saw at UMK (or hopefully even more
impressive), Finland will be qualifying with ease tonight and is definitely a
contender to win this semi-final. What will happen on Saturday, I’m not quite
as sure yet.
Montenegro
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
Somebody has to follow the favourite, and unfortunately this
time that’s Montenegro. I so desperately want the country to break its
non-qualification streak, and how poetic it would be for Tamara to qualify in
the same arena as Knez eleven years ago, but I have a dreadful gut feeling that
“Nova zora” won’t be making the cut. I think the package just lacks that ‘wow’
moment to get it over the line, and Montenegro seems to need something
spectacular just to be noticed. From what we’ve seen so far, Tamara’s vocals
aren’t ever so strong, and the song is probably too derivative to score well
with the juries. Montenegro will benefit from having Croatia and (particularly)
Serbia voting in this semi-final, and can probably expect a bit of a boost from
those two countries alone, but I really don’t see Western European voters
responding to this enough to take it through to the final.
Estonia
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
Now to the entry that has possibly grown on me the most out
of this year’s field. I think it’s fair to say that I wasn’t best pleased when
Vanilla Ninja won Estonia’s national final back in February, but the revamped
version of their song “Too Epic to Be True” really elevates the package to
another level in my opinion, and I think it might just qualify. It absolutely
is not one of the more current entries in this line-up, but at the end of the
day it’s a catchy, accessible pop-rock number that is memorable after just one
listen and is performed by seasoned professionals. I can see the juries giving
this quite a bit of support this evening – the performance feels clean and the
vocals seem to be executed well. How far it will climb I don’t know, and
qualification is not guaranteed, but it seems more likely than before.
Israel
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| Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU |
This year’s most controversial entry is up next, in Noam
Bettan’s “Michelle”. He is being joined on stage by a troupe of dancers, and
performs in front of a big diamond prop. Noam can carry the song well, but I
almost think the performance needs a little bit more energy injected into it. For
any other country, that might come from the live audience, but I don’t know how
this will be received in the arena. If ORF are sticking true to their promise
and the audience aren’t muted, we may well hear a bit of booing for this, and I
don’t think this year’s more upbeat effort will be as likely to garner sympathy
from the viewers as “Hurricane” or “New Day Will Rise”. That being said, this is
an almost guaranteed qualifier, and I think it would be making it through
regardless of the situation.
Belgium
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
In my opinion, this is one of the weaker songs in tonight’s
semi-final, and unfortunately RTBF seem to be up to their usual tricks with the
staging. The performance seems to be choreographed in a way that allows Essyla
to focus solely on her vocal delivery, which is positive, as she has struggled
with that in previous performances, but it does mean that the whole thing feels
oddly static as she stays in one place whilst her dancers spin around her.
Alongside this, Essyla’s stage presence leaves quite a bit to be desired and I
fear she may be getting lost on the big stage. Ultimately, the rehearsal clip
isn’t demonstrating the elevation I wanted to see in this package, and whilst
juries may still give it a bit of support for being a reasonably well-executed
pop song, I think this is going to struggle tonight.
Lithuania
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Lithuania is up next, with one of this year’s most striking
performers in Lion Ceccah. This song is another that has had a bit of a makeover
for Eurovision – like Estonia, I think that’s helped, but it’s still not one of
my personal favourites. But I do have to say that he seems to be executing the
package well, and the staging looks like it’s achieved the right level of
mystery, with Lion standing out against an all-black backdrop. I think this is
likely to do better with televoters than the juries, who might be a bit put off
by the weirdness of the whole thing. In a similar way to “Sentimentai” from
2022, I think this will score highly thanks to the Lithuanian diaspora, and
will probably be making it to the final, though I don’t know if it’s one of my
personal qualifiers.
San Marino
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
This year’s Sammarinese entry really is an injection of
light-hearted camp fun. It’s got rainbow lasers, pyro and lyrics that are feel-good
but ultimately quite meaningless – everything casual viewers expect from the
Eurovision Song Contest. Senhit is an experienced performer who knows better
than almost anyone how to work a Eurovision crowd, and she does this whilst
giving us a highly competent vocal performance. Boy George is… there. Why, I’m
still not entirely sure, but maybe a few casual viewers will be tempted to vote
for him? Really, though, this is at least fifteen years out of date and I don’t
see it making it through to Saturday night, unfortunately. It’s mildly enjoyable
but don’t think it will be one of the standout performances of the night for
many people.
Poland
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| Corinne Cumming/EBU |
The penultimate competing song comes from Poland, and this
package has been elevated from its original incarnation more than most others
this year. After a national final performance that left much to be desired,
this feels a lot sharper and certainly more professional. Alicja’s vocals are
excellent, and the choreography we’ve seen so far seems to work with the vibe
of the song. There’s quite a lot of white in this performance, which I think
complements some of the lyrics nicely as well. However, I am a bit hesitant to go
out on a limb and say that Poland will be qualifying tonight, because I
fundamentally don’t think the song is good enough. I think it’s too disjointed
to fully get the juries on side, even with Alicja’s vocal performance, and I don’t
see many first-time listeners feeling sufficiently enthusiastic about this
package to pick up the phone and vote for it.
Serbia
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| Alma Bengtsson/EBU |
Finally, we come to Lavina from Serbia, performing “Kraj
mene”. This was a slightly unexpected choice to close the show (at least as far
as I was concerned), but it certainly means we’re not ending on a whimper. This
is another drama-packed performance which is using lighting and camera angles
to its benefit. The lead vocalist is reminding me of Chris Harms from Lord of the
Lost – he has such impressive control over his voice and I hope the juries
reward that deservingly. The package is being executed well, and probably
better than a few songs I would class as indirect competition for Serbia, which
will work in its favour. Of course, I’ve already mentioned the other two
ex-Yugoslav countries in this semi-final, who will surely be throwing it some
votes, but I think this would be qualifying anyway.
That’s all our competing entries, so it’s time for me to put
my neck on the line and make a prediction. To me, this is the easier semi-final
to predict this year, and that’s largely because I think this line-up is weaker
than Thursday’s. I’m fairly confident in eight of the ten qualifiers I am
predicting, but I’ve been wrong before so may be eating my words tomorrow
morning. I’m listing the songs in order of how likely I think they are to
finish in the top ten, rather than my predicted finishing order. For example, I
think Israel is almost a certain qualifier due to its inevitable televote appeal,
but would be surprised if it scores enough from the juries to come out on top overall.
As I’ve said already though, a lot of unknowns still remain – these predictions
are based on the limited information I have so far.
- Israel
- Finland
- Greece
- Sweden
- Moldova
- Croatia
- Lithuania
- Serbia
- Estonia
- Portugal
- Montenegro
- Georgia
- Belgium
- Poland
- San Marino
If I was the sole decider of the results, I would probably
be inclined to put Montenegro and Georgia in ahead of Lithuania and Serbia, but
I think both packages might struggle to cut through the field, particularly
with the juries. I’m being optimistic about Estonia and Portugal, but both countries
have strong qualification streaks at the moment that are difficult to argue with.
Finally, let’s talk about the two songs that will be
performed in exhibition tonight. Italy has certainly taken the maximalist
approach to its stage show this year. I’m going to reserve full judgement until
I’ve seen the performance in its entirety, but it looks like it might have gone
a bit too tacky, and Sal Da Vinci’s vocals aren’t great in the snippet we’ve seen.
Whether or not that will matter for the song’s target demographic, who can say?
“Fire” seems to have had a bit of a glow-up for Eurovision – it’s still not anything
we haven’t seen before (actually, it’s reminding me a bit of Nutsa Buzaladze
from 2024 – maybe that’s just the similar title though) but Sarah is performing
it well and it all looks slick and put together, with a polished dance routine
and clean vocals. If received well by the live audience, this could do better
than expected on Saturday.
However you are watching tonight, I do hope you enjoy the show. I personally am looking forward to Austria taking on another twenty-first century contest – it will be interesting to compare this year’s shows to those from 2015 – and also seeing Michael and Victoria in action for the first time. My plan is to share my thoughts on Bluesky as we go along, so make sure you’re following me there if you want to hear my instant reactions to each performance. Otherwise, my reactions to the results, and predictions for Thursday’s semi-final, will be up very soon indeed.
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