Eurovision 2026: Grand Final Prediction
Before you read this post about Eurovision 2026, I encourage you to have a look at my statement on this year’s contest.
Well, two shows down and it’s suddenly time for this year’s
Grand Final. Before I discuss the competing songs and my predictions for each
of them, let’s take a moment to reflect on what happened on Thursday. In my
opinion, the production of the show was better than Tuesday’s, though still not
great. Michael and Victoria still seem uncomfortable, and the “Wasted Boat”
opening act was very awkward. They managed to make “I’m So Excited” distinctly
unexciting, and the blatant lip-synching annoyed me a bit. However, I did enjoy
JJ’s new single, and am glad to see him continuing to have success after
Eurovision. Let’s not forget, though, the sketch that was apparently so
tone-deaf that the BBC cut away entirely and just played Look Mum No Computer’s
music video instead. Speaking of the BBC, I must say I wasn’t convinced by
Rylan and Angela during either of the semi-finals – the commentary felt a bit
too obviously scripted and not particularly in line with the narratives of the
week, although I did respect them explicitly mentioning Israel’s participation
as a cause of controversy.
The second semi-final saw Albania, Australia, Bulgaria, Cyprus,
Czechia, Denmark, Malta, Norway, Romania and Ukraine qualifying for the final,
leaving Armenia, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Latvia (*sobs*)
behind. I don’t think there were any particularly big shocks here, and I did
predict nine out of ten qualifiers correctly. Bulgaria was the only country that
I didn’t see making it through, but after watching that live performance it was
never in doubt. I do have to admit that predicting a Latvian qualification may
have been more driven by hopes than serious expectations, but I did think the
song had a chance, and I’m so disappointed we won’t be seeing Atvara perform
this evening. I’m also disappointed for Armenia and Switzerland; I thought both
countries had a chance but the competition was just so strong. Luxembourg was
probably just a bit too twee, and Azerbaijan never really stood a chance, but I
do hope the country comes back (much) stronger next year.
Over on Bluesky, I was sharing my live reactions to the
show, and you can read those here. All being well, I’ll be doing the
same this evening. Anyway, tonight we have all twenty-five finalists vying to
succeed JJ as Eurovision champion. But how do they stack up? Here’s what I
think.
Denmark
The way I screamed when I saw that Denmark had been selected
to open the show, I wouldn’t be surprised if my neighbours considered calling
an ambulance! In all seriousness, this is really disappointing for a song which
was undoubtedly one of the favourites to win this year, and one of my personal
favourites as well. I don’t want to say it’s entirely out of contention, but it’s
going to have such a struggle to be noticed that it might as well be. Not to be
too negative, though, as this is still one of my favourite packages of the
show, and Søren
has generally been performing it well, so hopefully people will still turn out
to support him.
Germany
Somebody has to perform second, and this year that’s Sarah
Engels of Germany. This feels like a relatively safe choice; it’s a song that
isn’t in contention to win by any means, but will keep the energy up after
Denmark. Much like last year, the German entry has received a bit of a revamp
for Eurovision, which I think is really helping. The package seems to have more
of an identity now, and the choreography is elevating the song rather than
distracting from it. I still don’t think Germany will do particularly well this
evening – juries will give it a few points for being competent and radio-friendly,
but the televote is likely to gravitate towards more distinctive entries.
Israel
The third consecutive year of Israel being shoved safely towards
the start of the show, and I don’t know how long the EBU can keep doing this
for before it becomes conspicuous. Noam performed well during the semi-final,
but I thought he seemed to be turning every emotion up to the highest degree in
a way that felt a little bit mawkish. That won’t matter though, because at this
point I think Israel’s result is entirely independent of what happens on stage.
It will be the same as the last two years: a respectable but not huge jury
score supplemented by rather a lot of points from the televote. The only
question is: will it be enough to win?
Belgium
I was astonished when this qualified for the final, and I
don’t want to sound too negative here, but I still can’t work out how Belgium
managed it (particularly after last year’s robbery). Unfortunately, I think
Essyla is going to be comprehensively outdone this evening, and performing so
early on won’t help her. On Tuesday, the performance was too static for me, and
did nothing to elevate a somewhat underwhelming song. I’m really hoping she
pulls it out of the bag, otherwise I’m not sure where the votes are going to
come from. If the juries did carry this through to the final as I suspect,
maybe they will support it again, but that may well be it.
Albania
Somehow, this performance was even more impactful during the
live show than even I was prepared for. The story it told and the mood it
created brought me to tears. I saw a few complaints online about the subtitles
being difficult to read as the text is yellow, but personally that didn’t make
too much of a difference. I’m not too disappointed about the early running
order position for Albania: I think it stands out here after a fairly upbeat
start to the show and hopefully if casual viewers connect with it in the same
way I did, they will remember “Nân” by the end of the show. I think
this will do better with the televote than the juries, but probably won’t be
challenging the main contenders.
Greece
Next up is another of this year’s favourites, in a running
order slot they might be slightly disappointed with. I’ve made no secret of the
fact that “Ferto” isn’t really my cup of tea, and I do think there is a case to
be made for applying the law of diminishing returns to the zanier entries we
seem to be seeing of late, but ultimately this will probably do very well with
the televote tonight. As far as the jury vote goes, I’m less certain, but the
slower section of the song should serve it well and the performance has been very
cleverly crafted. A likely top five, but I think it will struggle to grab the
victory.
Ukraine
Ukraine’s entry this year is another that I haven’t been particularly
enthusiastic about, and might have left in the semi-final given the chance, but
I did expect it to qualify, and felt like I understood the staging a bit more when
I saw it in full on Thursday. If this came from any other country, I’d be
predicting a solid jury score but not too much televote support – however, this
is Ukraine, and a high televote score is all but guaranteed. As such, I wouldn’t
be surprised to see “Ridnym” finishing in the top ten tonight, and I think it
will definitely bring Ukraine another solid result to be proud of.
Australia
It’s the next of the favourites now, with Australia’s Delta
Goodrem taking to the stage. This is one of the packages this year that seems
to have crept up on a lot of fans during the rehearsals, as we’ve heard just
how good Delta’s delivery of this is. This definitely has a big chance of
winning the jury vote, but I’m not so convinced that televoters will respond to
this in the same way. The package is slick and professional, but a bit dated
and slightly tacky in places (looking at that gold piano in particular). It
doesn’t scream televote success, and Australia’s record with the European
public isn’t terrific, but we’ll just have to see.
Serbia
Serbia closed Tuesday’s semi-final in spectacular fashion,
with a performance likely to startle children, pets and the elderly. Lavina
have an excellent running order position here – surrounded by slower songs, “Kraj
mene” will really stand out. The song’s most direct competitors are performing
much later in the show as well, making it all the more likely that this will be
remembered. I don’t foresee this song scoring particularly well with the
juries, but televoters, particularly those from the other ex-Yugoslav nations,
will give it a bit of a boost. I don’t think this song will be able to get onto
the left-hand side of the board, but it’s already a big improvement on last
year for Serbia.
Malta
I was ever so pleased when Malta was announced as a
qualifier, I thought Aidan deserved it but it didn’t feel guaranteed. His
performance on Thursday was confident and well-executed, even if I still think
it ends a bit prematurely. Reaching the final for the second consecutive year
feels like a victory in itself for Malta after a tricky few years, but Aidan
will definitely be hoping for a fairly good result tonight, particularly with
the juries. Much like Australia, Malta tends to struggle with the televote, so
I’m less sure about how “Bella” will fare there, but at the end of the day this
should by no means be a disaster.
Czechia
Putting Czechia straight after Malta feels like a bit of an
odd choice to me. Both “Bella” and “Crossroads” are slower yet powerful and
delivered by similar artists. I think this leaves both songs open to comparisons
from jurors and audience members alike, and on balance, I think this might help
Daniel more than it does Aidan. Czechia is another country that struggles with
the televote, but I think this song will do better with the juries, who may
appreciate the artistry here more than the drama of the Maltese entry. I’ve
heard people speculating about this getting Czechia’s best-ever result, and personally
I’m not expecting that, though it should do well.
Bulgaria
Next is another package that seems to have gained traction
in the last week or so. Bulgaria’s “Bangaranga” seems to be performing very
well with casual viewers, if various polls (and also a fair bit of hearsay) are
to be believed. The staging concept is definitely interesting, and not
particularly similar to anything we’ve seen at Eurovision before, but I don’t
know if it made an awful lot of sense to me (but I don’t think the song makes
an awful lot of sense to me as it is). It would be nice to see Bulgaria perform
well on its return, and it seems like the left-hand side of the board is a
distinct possibility for Dara, though I am still unsure about how juries will
respond to this package.
Croatia
Lelek from Croatia delivered one of my favourite
performances on Tuesday: their delivery of “Andromeda” was impassioned,
meaningful and vocally faultless. A repeat performance should stand them in
good stead tonight. The song I’ve been comparing this to all season is “Bur man
laimi” by Tautumeitas, and I think Croatia might be on for a similar result tonight,
though potentially earning a few more televote points (and fewer jury points)
along the way. In any event, it’s nice to see Croatia back in the final after
last year’s blip, and I’m always a fan of something as traditional and symbolic
as this at Eurovision.
United Kingdom
It’s time for me to remain impartial as I discuss my own
country’s entry: Look Mum No Computer with “Eins, Zwei, Drei”. How is this
going to do tonight? I honestly can’t say, except for the fact that I think it
will do very well to escape the bottom five. Sam’s vocal performance isn’t
among the best in this field, but the stage show does seem to be working, and
will be particularly memorable if the audience really get involved towards the end.
Will it be enough to get the UK at least one point from the televote? I
honestly don’t know. This is a polarising package, but not quite strong enough
to be polarising in a good way. Double zero? Possibly.
France
Performing next is one of the evening’s biggest vocal
powerhouses in Monroe from France. She delivered a flawless performance during
the semi-final on Thursday, warning the competing artists of the competition that
lay ahead of them. I said on Bluesky that it’s hard to be aggrieved with France’s
blatant attempt to recreate the last two winners when it’s executed this well.
It’s going to be a straight fight between this and Australia for the jury
victory this evening, and I honestly think this has more televote potential than
“Eclipse” – unless the European public is completely fed up of opera, that is.
I predicted a French victory last year and ended up with egg on my face – only a
real fool would make the same mistake twice.
Moldova
It’s quite the tonal shift now as we move from Monroe’s
exquisite delivery of “Regarde” to the chaotic fun of “Viva, Moldova!”. This was
excellent as a show-opener on Tuesday; my only real complaint with the
performance was the movement in the camera shots – I would have been content
watching Satoshi jump about with his troupe. I’ve been glad to hear the more ‘refined’
version of the song at Eurovision, and Aliona Moon’s throwback section is
particularly welcome. This could be a real threat with the televote this
evening, and could very easily make it into the top ten if the juries don’t absolutely
tank it.
Finland
Next up is the country that is, at the time of writing,
still the favourite to take the trophy tonight. That’s Finland, but for some
reason, despite the song being one of my favourites this year, I just can’t get
excited about the prospect of “Liekinheitin” winning. Whether that comes from
the part of me that finds it hard to root for the favourite or some annoyance
about the live instrument argument, I’m not sure, but the feeling is there. This
will do well, I don’t want to deny that, but to be honest I can’t see it getting
over the line. There are too many other contenders to win the jury vote, and enough
televote magnets to prevent it getting a huge score from the public either.
Poland
Following the favourite is a difficult task, and this time
it’s gone to Alicja from Poland, who was probably one of the more surprising
qualifiers this year, though her place in the final is entirely deserved. I’m
finding it quite difficult to gauge how this is going to do with the respective
sides of the voting: on the one hand, the vocal performance should get Alicja
some jury support; yet on the other, the song still doesn’t really know what it
wants to be and… it is Poland, a country that never seems to be able to get it
right for the music industry professionals. I don’t see this languishing right
at the bottom of the scoreboard tonight, but equally I don’t think it will be making
waves.
Lithuania
Lithuania’s Lion Ceccah is next with one of the more high-art
performances of the evening. Despite not having been a huge fan of this previously,
I did enjoy it during the semi-final, and think that if nothing else, Lion’s appearance
will give this package the advantage of memorability. He has delivered the song
well, and the performance has clearly been properly thought through. Like most
Lithuanian entries, I think this will do better with the public than the juries,
but like Poland I don’t think this song will be one of the big hitters tonight.
Having said that though, I think this will be another very respectable result
for Lithuania, on what is now the country’s sixth consecutive qualification.
Sweden
The Swedish delegation will be pleased with this running
order slot, particularly because at the moment everything else seems to be unravelling
for Felicia. Whilst she did deliver the song excellently on Tuesday, the
performance included a rather unfortunate wardrobe malfunction and seemed a little
bit less assured than usual. To add to her woes, she has also reportedly lost
her voice and been unable to perform during some of the rehearsals. I do hope
she is able to give it her all tonight – whilst it won’t be challenging for the
win, this is one of my favourites this year and I’d hate for this to be the
year Sweden falls down the scoreboard.
Cyprus
What a journey I have been on with Antigoni this week! Until
I saw the rehearsal footage in advance of the semi-final, I was sure that “Jalla”
would be qualifying with no issues whatsoever. Then I heard Antigoni singing
live. Singing is actually quite a generous word for her vocal performance. She
sounded awful on Thursday (and clearly got in her head about it), and I was
fully expecting to lose Cyprus this year, but in the end she managed to get
through. If she sounds anything like she did the other day, the juries will pay
this dust, but maybe the televote will look upon Cyprus more kindly.
Italy
Well, this year will certainly test whether Italy is
actually capable of doing badly at Eurovision. I like this song, and thought
its demographic would be out in force to support it, but then I saw the
performance. It’s certainly… maximalist. The Italian delegation seems to have tried
the technique of throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. This
has created a stage show that is earnest, but slightly chaotic and, at times, verging
on cringeworthy. I’ll be very interested to see how this does tonight – I had
it down as a likely top ten before rehearsals, but to be honest I don’t think
this package is deserving of that any more.
Norway
Norway’s Jonas Lovv closed the second semi-final on Thursday
with a brilliant performance of “Ya Ya Ya”. He is this package’s strongest asset,
and significantly elevates a rather mediocre song. This performance felt somehow
removed from the Eurovision show, almost like we were being afforded a special
preview of Jonas’ headline concert. His charisma and stage presence should help
first-time listeners to remember this in the line-up, which will give Norway a
bit of a boost in the televote; I’m expecting its jury score to be lower, but
still respectable. Unfortunately, however, its closest competitor is performing
immediately afterwards, and speaking of…
Romania
What a return to the contest this is shaping up to be for
Romania! In my opinion, Alexandra gave one of the most powerful performances in
Thursday’s semi-final, with a stage show that had me captivated throughout and worked
very well indeed with the song. If she manages to repeat that performance
tonight, possibly with a couple of vocal flaws ironed out, this could really
challenge the main contenders in the televote. However, this isn’t the sort of
song juries tend to be particularly enthusiastic about, and I don’t think the
lyrical content will improve opinions in that regard. For me, that’s what’s
keeping it from the very top, but this should be Romania’s best result in a
long time.
Austria
And closing out the show is this year’s host country,
Austria. This was of course selected randomly back in March, but what an
excellent final act this will be. The audience went mad for this during the
semi-final on Thursday and I would only expect them to take it to another level
for the final. As with several of tonight’s performances, the vocals aren’t the
most important element here – instead, it’s all about the energy Cosmó
brings to the stage, and on that front he delivers very well. I don’t expect
this to do very well on the scoreboard tonight, but this is a host entry
exactly as it should be: bringing proceedings to a close with a celebration!
On the whole, I’m happy with this final line-up. I think it’s
a strong year and these songs reflect that. It’s also relatively open, with
five or six songs that could still, in my opinion, take the trophy if the stars
align. In the end, I decided on France as my pick for winner (for the second
year in a row), with the small caveat that if Australia wins the jury vote I
could very easily see Delta taking it. Finland could very easily do it though,
and is probably our best candidate for a compromise winner if the results end up
split all over the place. Everything else in the below is my best guess based
on the performances and trying to get in the heads of juries and televoters.
- France
- Finland
- Australia
- Israel
- Greece
- Denmark
- Sweden
- Romania
- Czechia
- Moldova
- Norway
- Ukraine
- Croatia
- Bulgaria
- Albania
- Malta
- Italy
- Poland
- Cyprus
- Lithuania
- Serbia
- Germany
- Belgium
- Austria
- United Kingdom
Finally: I think I need to discuss what is, to me, the
non-zero chance that Israel takes the trophy tonight. What that would mean for the
contest, I don’t know. Frankly, it’s not something I want to think about. The
words in the statement I made at the beginning of the year still hold true, and
I don’t think the changes the EBU has made to the voting system are going to be
enough to protect the integrity of the televote. All this to say, I’m going
into this final with a certain level of dread. Of course, there has always been
nerves – wondering who will win, how will my favourites do, where will the UK
end up? But this is different: it’s a feeling that there is always a
possibility of total implosion at any moment, that hasn’t really gone away
since 2024. I don’t know what else to say about that now, and I don’t know how
well I’m articulating myself, but it’s clear that things still need to change
for the good of the contest.
This is likely to be the last post on my blog for quite a
while. I will be analysing the results of this year’s contest at some point,
but that will probably be during the summer when I have more spare time. Thank
you if you have followed my coverage over the course of this Eurovision season,
and I sincerely hope you enjoy the show tonight.
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